Avior Financials | Transaction Capital | Investec | Peregrine | A2X | SARB BA 900 data | Liberty

In this week's Avior Financials note:

• We met Transaction Capital management following its H1 '19 results and provide our meeting notes.

• Investec's FY '19 results were ahead of our expectations and pre-close guidance. In our view, the results continue to support our investment case for the stock (a higher multiple for IAM after listing and improved profitability for the rest of the Group).

• Peregrine's (PGR) hedge fund factsheets reflect positive Apr '19 returns of between 1% and 2.5%. We believe strong fund performance will contribute to higher performance fees in FY ‘20f.

• We hosted A2X management to discuss A2X's progress and outlook. YTD A2X's value traded is R450m.

• The SARB/PA Mar ‘19 balance sheet (BA 900) data for SA banks was released. Despite muted SA economic growth, we expect the acceleration in SA banks' advances growth, tight cost control and banks operations outside SA to support mid-to-upper single digit earnings growth in 2019.

• Liberty's operational update provides evidence of a slow but increasingly positive operational turnaround. We are encouraged by an improved new business mix. Increased recurring premium and group risk product sales are likely to attract higher margins than single premium flows. In our view, new business volume growth of 5% y/y is required to sustain profitability. Aggregate new business volumes rose 5.8% y/y in Q1'19 due to improved sales in SA Corporate and Liberty Africa. STANLIB's NCCF was impressive at R15.6bn (Q1'18: R5bn).