Report

SA Insurance | Under pressure

The South African economy remains in its longest downward cycle since 1945, entering its 67th month of a weakening cycle in Jun ‘19. Annualising the Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF) payments in Q2'19 implies a 33% y/y rise in terminations in CY'19f. While insurers have broadly reported persistency experience within model assumptions up to Q1'19, the severity of South Africa's economic pressures have intensified in Q2'19 as policy reform has not followed the elections casting doubt on the balance of power within the ANC. With limited direct investment expected in CY'19f or CY'20f, we expect insurers to report negative operating variances and assumption changes for lapse rates in H1'19 and/or FY'19. We expect the trend of negative real wage growth (Q1'19: -0.2% y/y) in the private sector to slow new business volume growth to low single digits in SA. We expect investment returns of c.7% for H1'19 compared to a base of c.1% to positively offset low single digit normalised operating earnings for the listed insurers (OMU: 2% y/y, SLM: 9%y/y, SLM excluding Saham: c.5% y/y, LBH: 2% y/y, DSY: 4% y/y).
Underlyings
Discovery Limited

Discovery is an integrated financial services organisation, focusing on health insurance, life assurance, investments and savings products, wellness and short-term insurance. Co. operates primarily through six subsidiaries which operate in South Africa: Discovery Health, Discovery Life, Discovery Collective Investments and Discovery Investment Services, Discovery Vitality and Discovery Insure. In the U.K., Co., via a subsidiary, Discovery Offshore Holdings Limited, has a joint venture with Prudential plc., the PruProtection group of companies, which provide health and life insurance products. In the U.S., The Vitality Group Inc. provides Vitality as a stand-alone product.

Liberty Holdings Limited

Liberty Holdings is a holding company. Co. provides a range of products and services to help customers build and protect long-term wealth. These include life and healthrelated insurance, investment management and retirement income facilitation. Co. provides risk cover through insurance contracts to individuals and institutions that provides financial assistance to the customer in the event of death, sickness or disability and retrenchment; managing customer wealth through investment advice, active and passive asset management services; providing retirement financial assistance to pensioners; and administration and consulting services to health risk insurers.

Old Mutual Ltd.

Old Mutual Limited is a financial service company, which is focused on providing financial solutions to individuals, businesses, corporations and institutions across 17 countries and three regions Africa and Asia. Its business includes Old Mutual Personal Finance offers wealth creation and protection products, as well as asset management, in the middle-income market; Old Mutual Mass & Foundation Cluster offers savings and protection products to customers in the lower-income and foundation market; Old Mutual Corporate provides investment, insurance and consultancy services to retirement funds and companies of all sizes; Old Mutual Wealth & Investments Cluster offers clients access to an array of investment offerings, styles and asset classes; Old Mutual Insure that provides short-term insurance services to personal, commercial and corporate customers, and Old Mutual Africa offers life and savings, property and casualty, asset management and banking services.

Sanlam Limited

Sanlam is a financial services company, engaged in providing financial solutions to individuals and institutional clients. Co.'s solutions include life insurance; general insurance; investment management, which include retail savings, asset management and wealth management; credit and structuring; and administration, health and other such as estate planning, trusts, wills and health management. Co.'s segments include: Sanlam Personal Finance; Sanlam Emerging Markets; Sanlam Investments, which includes Investment Management, Capital Management and Sanlam Employee Benefits; Santam; and Corporate and Other.

Provider
Avior Capital Markets
Avior Capital Markets

Avior is a globally recognised capital markets research and trading firm, with the broadest research coverage within the region, with 100+ SA and 20+ SSA companies under coverage. Avior services clients from offices in London, Cape Town and Johannesburg.

Our research quality is consistently recognised in local and global surveys, with 18 analysts currently rated in their respective sectors (FM 2017). Value add through in-depth, innovative, high quality and consistent research with comprehensive underlying fundamental modelling supported by regular analyst and roadshow interactions.

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Analysts
Warwick Bam

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