Avior Financials | GTB meeting notes | Q3 investment banking data | Nedbank | PSG Konsult net flows

• We met with the Guaranty Trust Bank (GTB) CFO last week. Management noted that the bank's operations trends in Q3 ‘19 had been in line with management's guidance after the interim results. In our view, GTB's performance has been positive YTD given the challenging operating environment in Nigeria. However, due to regulatory risks (CBN increasing minimum LDR) and the impending entry of major telcos (e.g. MTN) into the mobile money banking space, we caution that asset quality and the Bank's low cost of funds could deteriorate over the next three years.

• Refinitiv estimates that African investment banking fees declined 19% y/y to USD432m up to Sep '19. However, in Q3 '19 the rate of decline slowed to 4.4% in USD and 0.2% in ZAR. In our view, the trend in Q3 '19 is encouraging for strong revenue growth in SA banks' African CIB operations.

• Nedbank's new Greenbacks programme has left its card swiping rewards programme unchanged and added a behavioural or “money management” approach that is similar to Discovery Bank's Vitality Money. Improved incentives for cross-sell are positive for Nedbank. However, the bank's launch of the money management programme is underwhelming and will probably not attract many new customers.

• PSG Konsult reports its H1 '20 results on 10 Oct '19. We expect a 5% increase in diluted HEPS. We note a slowdown in net flows in Sep '19(post the Aug '19 interim reporting period). Based on the charts below, we note R1.5bn in single manager net outflows in Sep '19.