We expect sales to have taken a hit in 2Q17 as manufacturing for Saudi Arabia slows down. The client has not completed the Mecca - Medina maintenance centre and is unable to take delivery of the trains.
For 1H17e we expect sales of €201mn, a –33% drop from 1H16 reflecting lower sales in MEA and Kazakhstan. We expect €45mn EBITDA, down –21% from 1H16 and €31mn (–30%) for the PBT €24mn net profit (–30%). Lower manufacturing should help to turn the equity free cash flow to positive, this is a plus point for the 1H17e results.
We believe that the results will disappoint and expect selling pressure after the announcement. We are downgrading our recommendation to Hold (from Buy). Our target price is cut to €5.71 from €5.88 reflecting the push back in the cash flows associated to the Saudi client.
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