Pakistan Strategy: Elections 2018 - The number game based on pre-poll surveys
- The latest surveys conducted by Gallup, Pulse, and IPOR have yielded interesting insights in potential voters’ behavior for the upcoming general elections. The surveys highlight increase in popularity for PTI over PML (N) -the archrival at national level.
- Both PML(N) and PTI appear to have cemented their positions in their respective strongholds i.e. KPK and Punjab. PML(N)’s popularity is more concentrated in Punjab, the key battle ground which accounts for ~50% of total seats of the lower house.
- Assuming the results of the surveys translate into voting pattern, we see two key conclusions: (i) a split mandate in the upcoming elections is on the cards with PML(N) and PTI gaining 93/87 seats (average, reserved seats included), and (ii) the importance of small political parties, including independent candidates, have increased to gain simple majority.
- Three important considerations that may further change the survey results are: (i) undecided voters (accounts for as high as 10-20% as per the surveys), (ii) impact of election campaign in the remaining 20 days particularly in the context of likely decision by the court against PML(N) leader, and (iii) the impact of significant desertion/party infighting in both PML(N) and PTI.
- The surveys reaffirm market’s major concerns i.e. split mandate and coalition govt. for the next political term that as such may have limited impact. From our point of view, progress on economic issues remains crucial.
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