Pakistan Strategy : Politics - A more divided Senate emerges post elections
- Following the Senate elections on 3rd Mar’18, the contest for top slot in the Senate is wide-open, in our view, despite the ruling party gaining an expected but crucial majority of 33 seats in the house.
- The elections have brought its fair share of surprise; (i) Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) beating the pre-election prognosis and securing 12 seats, and (ii) perhaps highest ever number of Senators in independent category (excluding ruling party). The latter allows PPP to fancy its chances for the control of upper house by cobbling together a coalition against the majority party.
- Regardless of final outcome, the results suggest the future ruling party (or parties) may face a divided and active Upper House. This not only makes law making on key issues of national importance (NFC Award, fiscal responsibility, 18thAmendment) more challenging (2/3rd majority required), but also raises the prospect of more politicking in future.
- Post Senate election, all eyes are now fixed on; (i) which party gets to elect its chairman and at what cost, (ii) the expected judgment on Panama Case against the former Prime Minister, and (iii) negotiation on interim set-up.
- We don’t expect market to show any meaningful response to elections results, though trading activity may be impacted due to impending events.
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