BMCE Capital Research - Forecast H1 2019
- For 2019, the evolution of the earnings capacity of our Scope 40 (i.e. 95.4% of the market capitalization as on 10/08/2019) should rise by +3.6%* to MAD 30.4bn, including a downward revision of our overall forecasts, in view of the relatively disappointing half-yearly financial results;
- The anticipated positive trend in H2 is explained in particular by the expected increase in commercial activity of listed stocks, driven mainly by the consolidation of domestic demand and the probable easing of the Boycott movement combined with the projected non-recurrence of the size of the tax audits recorded in 2018;
- The introduction of the solidarity social contribution should slow down the increase in earnings. Excluding its impact, the NIGS of our scope should post a growth rate of 6.7% to MAD 31.3bn;
- In 2020E and on a comparable basis, the evolution of the overall net income should grow by 6.5% to reach MAD 32.3bn;
- By sector, the contribution of industrial companies to financial achievements remains preponderant over the period2018-2020E with an average of 53.7%, followed by financial companies with 42.0% while insurances represent 4.2
BMCE Capital Global Research is a subsidiary of BMCE Capital Group dedicated to Research and Financial Analysis. It is addressed to professional investors (financial institutions, management companies, etc.) to which it provides information and independent analysis aligned with international standards. BMCE Capital Research covers equities, interest rate, Forex and commodities markets in Morocco, Tunisia and WAEMU region (Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières, BRVM). Thanks to its latest generation technology platform, to its teams and to those of its partners, the Research Office of BMCE Capital is now able to cover simultaneously several places in Africa and to produce several publications co-branded under its umbrella brand African Securities Network, ASN.
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