Polish Equities Monthly: July 2020
Worlds apart
Nasdaq Composite at its all-time high (and +11.7% ytd) and S&P500 a tad in the positive territory from the ytd RoR perspective – that was the world of the stock market just a few days ago. It hardly reconciled not only with realistic, in our view, scenarios for the economic recovery (discussed in our previous Monthly research report, 6/2020/MR(59), dated May 19), but also with the mathematics of changes in the U.S. earnings expectations (the abrupt sell-off of June 11 (on fears of the COVID-19 second wave) did not change the overall assessment, albeit did moderate it). At the turn of 2019 and 2020 (i.e. prior the COVID-19 pandemics) EPS for S&P500 was expected (according to FactSet data) at c. +9% followed by c. 11% yoy rise in 2021, implying the 2021E EPS hovering by c. 21% above the 2019 level; at that time the U.S. equities were priced at demanding 1-year forward (2020E) P/E of >18x – a level of valuation with which we ceased to feel comfortable (see our 2020 equity strategy report, 11/2019/MR(154), dated December 8, 2019). At the moment, after the pandemic-driven ‘from-bust-to-rebound’ corporate earnings cycle, the 2021 EPS for S&P500 is expected (according to FactSet) merely 1% above the 2019 level (c. -21% yoy contraction in 2020E, followed by c. +28% yoy increase in 2021E) – currently the U.S. equities (S&P500) are priced at 2-year forward 2021E P/E of c. 19.0x, down from c. 20x in the middle of last week (the 2020E multiple, equal to c. 24.5x now (and c. 25.7x couple of days ago), is intentionally omitted from the reasoning). If six months ago we viewed pricing at c. 18x (1-year) forward P/E as uncomforting, then how should we assess valuation at 19x (2-year) forward P/E? (no need to answer; just a rhetoric question). In other words, whereas the expectations on 2021 earnings of the S&P500 companies were reduced during last six months by approx. 20%, the prices of U.S. equities (as measured by the aggregate) did not change correspondingly. Whereas that gives food for thought, we generally believe that the environment in which the tail (investors) wags (or at least strives to wag) the dog (FED) – investors expecting (and demanding) the Federal Reserve to support virtually each and every market contraction with accommodation of the policy – is perilous and promotes creation of asset price bubbles.
11 BIT STUDIOS SA is a Poland-based company engaged in the game development industry. Its product portfolio includes four games: Anomaly Korea, Sleepwalker's Journey, Funky Smugglers and Anomaly Warzone Earth. The Company produces video games for different devices, such as video consoles, personal computers (PC), and Apple products (iPhone, iPad), among others.
AB Spolika Akcyjna is adistributor of IT and consumer electronics in the region of Central and Eastern Europe. Co. operating mainly in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia is a strategic distribution partner for most of the world's manufacturers of new technologies, selling their products to more than 16 thousand business partners. Co.'s regular offer includes above 70 thousand products of more than seven hundred brands from all over the world. The business of Co. is split into: wholesale trade in computer, telecommunications, multimedia and electronic equipment; retail trade in computer hardware; and personal computer manufacturing.
Asseco Poland is a provider of proprietary information technology ("IT") solutions which is based in Poland. Co. is engaged in provision of consulting on IT infrastructure, security solutions, human resources solutions, outsourcing services as well as fully comprehensive IT support. Co.'s profile includes software and computer hardware consultancy, production of software as well as supply of software and hardware. This category includes analysing, developing, and programming ready-to-use IT systems. In addition to IT services, Co. also sells goods including mainly computer hardware.
Asseco South Eastern Europe is engaged in holding operations which involve investments in new IT sector companies in South Eastern Europe and Turkey, as well as management of companies that have been already incorporated into Co. in that region. Co. is also a provider of services and software for voice automation solutions, payment systems and mobile communication systems. Co. is a provider of IT solutions, authentication solutions and online payment settlement systems, while it also delivers and performs maintenance of ATMs and POS terminals, and provides integration and implementation services for IT systems and hardware.
British Automotive Holding SA is a Poland-based holding company. The Company is dominating Company of the Capital Group, consisted of the General Importer of Jaguar Land Rover, Direct Dealer Aston Martin and Dealer Companies. Through its subsidiaries the Company is active in the Polish market and conducts import and distribution of new cars, spare parts and accessories, as well as comprehensive service support for the Jaguar, Land Rover brands and Aston Martin.
CD Projekt is a holding company of the CD PROJEKT Capital Group which conducts its operations in two activity segments: CD PROJEKT RED and GOG.com. CD PROJEKT RED's activities cover the creation and publication of videogames, licensing the associated distribution rights and manufacturing tie-in products which exploit the commercial appeal of brands owned by Co. The activities of GOG Ltd. involve digital distribution of videogames via Co.'s proprietary GOG.com distribution platform, on the basis of contracts signed by GOG Ltd. with producers, IPR holders and external publishers. The platform enables customers to purchase games, remit payment and download game files to their personal devices.
Celon Pharma SA is a Poland-based company primarily engaged in the pharmaceuticals manufacture. The Company focuses on research, development and production of generic drugs for cancer, neurological diseases, diabetes and other metabolic disorders treatment, among others. Its products portfolio comprises pills, such as Aromek, Bosentan Celon, Donepex, Ketrel, Lazivir and Valzek, as well as inhalation powder, such as Salmex. The Company's research center develops pharmaceuticals within a number of therapeutic areas, including oncology, neurology, as well as inflammatory and metabolic diseases. The Company is a subsidiary of Glatton sp z o o.
Ciech is engaged in the production, trade and distribution of chemicals as well as comprehensive service activities directed at the domestic and foreign market. The main products sold by Co. are soda ash, TDI, plastics, resins, chemical fertilizers, plant protection chemicals, glass blocks and glass packaging, salt and other chemicals.
Dino Polska is engaged in the business of retail sale in non-specialized stores with food, beverages and tobacco. In addition, Co. conducts processing of meats and the resulting products are dedicated, in the form of culinary meat, to external recipients within Co.'s retail chain. As of December 31, 2016, Co. operated a network of 628 Dino stores.
Echo Investment is a real estate investment and development company based in Poland. Co.'s is engaged in operations in the real estate market, the design, construction and development of shopping and entertainment centers, hotels, office buildings, houses, blocks of flats and apartments. Co.'s operations are organized along three operating segments: Shopping and Entertaining Centers, Offices and Hotels and Residential. Co. also offers general contracting services for third party investors. Co. owns properties throughout Poland, including Szczecin, Poznan, Warsaw, Krakow and Kielce, among others, and abroad, including Ukraine, Romania and Hungary.
Erbud is a construction company in Poland. Co. performs services as a general contractor and a subcontractor which develops projects for private and public investors in retail, public utility, road engineering, power and residential construction sectors. Co. develops projects in Poland and abroad: in Germany, Belgium, Luxemburg and Holland.
Ferro SA is a Poland-based Company active in the sanitary and heating sector. Its offer includes sanitary and installation fittings under their own brand FERRO as well as elements of heating systems under own brand name Weberman. Furthermore, the Company represents Italian brands Caleffi, Cewal and Cimm on the Polish market. The Group operates in the Polish market and carries out international sales activities in among others Romanian, French, Ukrainian, Belorussian, Bulgarian and Russian markets. As of December 31, 2011, the Company operated four subsidiaries, including Ferro International Sp. z o.o., Nvaservis spol sro, based in the Czech Republic, Novaservis Romania SRL, based in Romania and Ferro Marketign Sp. z o.o.
Inter Cars is an automotive spare parts distributor for passenger cars, commercial vehicles and trucks in Middle-Eastern Europe. The product range of Co. reaches over one million different automotive spare parts for passenger cars and trucks. No matter if the car is European or Asian one, Co.'s customers can find full range of products for their cars as well as all the necessary tools and garage equipment. Besides spare parts distribution, which is the core business of Co., Co. is also an exclusive distributor of legendary motorcycle brand “TRIUMPH” in Poland (via motorcycle distribution network, called Inter Motors) and distributor of spare parts and accessories for other motorcycle brands.
Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa is a producer of type 35 coking coal (“orthocoking coal” according to Polish Standard). The main line of Co.'s business is also the mining and sales of steam coal. Co. is also central for selling all coal derivative products, i.e. coke and hydrocarbons produced by coking plants owned by the JSW S.A. Capital Group. The mining area is located in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. The principal clients for Co.'s products are located primarily in Poland, Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and also India and Brazil.
KGHM Polska Miedz is engaged in the mining of copper and non-ferrous metals ore; the excavation of gravel and sand; the production of copper, precious and non-ferrous metals; the production of salt; the casting of light and non-ferrous metals; the forging, pressing, stamping and roll forming of metal- powder metallurgy; waste management; wholesale based on direct payments or contracts; warehousing and storage of merchandise; holding management activities; geological and exploratory activities; general construction activities with respect to mining and production facilities; scheduled and non-scheduled air transport; telecommunication and IT services; and other activities.
Livechat Software SA is a Poland-based company engaged in the software industry. The Company is a producer and global provider of software as a service (SaaS) LiveChat, communication software for business. LiveChat enables fast and intuitive communication between company's employees and customers visiting corporate Website. The application also tracks customers' activity on a Website. The Company produces and distributes software for business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) communication. Its product portfolio includes three types of LiveChat plans: Solo, dedicated to single user and offering such features as unlimited chats, ticketing system, enhanced security and basic reporting; Team, for numerous teams that additionally includes chat routing and groups creation; and Enterprise, for companies that, additionally to previous ones, provides advanced reporting, work scheduler and unlimited visits on a Website.
Mercator Medical SA is a Poland-based company engaged in medical supplies industry. The Company manufactures medical gloves and distributes disposable medical materials. It produces medical, latex, synthetic, surgical, diagnostic sterile, examination and protective and household gloves. Its dressing products line includes gauze dressing products, non-woven fabric dressing, medical adhesive tapes, surgical dressing, among others. In addition, the Company provides drapes such as bed sheets, sets, as well as apparel, including caps, masks, gowns, among others. It operates through subsidiaries: Mercator Medical Kft, Mercator Medical srl, Merkator Medikal TOB, Mercator Medical (Thailand) Ltd and VIVOFT LLP.
NEUCA is a wholesale distributor of pharmaceuticals in Poland. Co. distinguishes the following reporting operating segments: Pharmaceutical wholesale – core activities of the segment include wholesale of pharmaceutical products; Marketing services – core activities of the segment include marketing activities for entities from outside of the pharmaceutical market; Own brands – core activities of the segment include market launching of pharmaceutical products under Co.'s own brand; and IT services – core activities of the segment include IT operations.
Orange Polska SA is a supplier of telecommunications services in Poland. Co. provides services, including fixed-line telecommunication services, Integrated Services Digital Network, voice mail, dial-up and fixed access to the Internet and Voice over Internet Protocol. Co. is one of Poland's three DCS 1800 and GSM 900 mobile telecommunications providers. Co. provides also third generation UMTS services. In addition, Co. provides leased lines, radio-communications and other telecommunications value added services, sells telecommunications equipment, produces electronic phone cards and provides data transmission, telephone directories, multimedia services and various Internet services.
Play Communications SA Formerly known as Play Holdings 2 SARL. Play Communications SA, formerly Play Holdings 2 SARL, is a Luxembourg-based provider of financial investment services. The Company is the owner of mobile operator P4 Sp z o o, that provides a wide range of mobile telecommunications services, including voice, data transmission services, messaging, video service (PLAY NOW), as well as Value Added Services and sales of handsets and other devices, to individual and business subscribers in Poland.
Ronson Europe is engaged in the development and sale of residential units, primarily apartments, in multi-family residential real-estate projects to individual customers in Poland.
Sanok Rubber Company SA, known as Sanockie Zaklady Przemyslu Gumowego Stomil Sanok SA, is a Poland-based company focused on development, production and marketing of products made from rubber and rubber combined with metal and other materials. The Company's business is divided into four segments: Automotive, Construction, Rubber Compounds and Industry and Agriculture. The Company manufactures a range of products used in such fields as car body sealing systems, car suspension and exhaust systems, electrical, power transmission, fuel and cooling systems, agriculture, household appliances and pharmaceutical industry.. The Company's customers are: Fiat, General Motors, Ford Motor, Volvo Cars, Suzuki, Volkswagen Group, Volvo Trucks, Mack Truck and LDV, among others. The Company operates through Stomet Sp. z o.o., PST Stomil Sp. z o.o., Stomil Sanok Dystrybucja Sp. z o.o., PHU Stomil East Sp. z o.o., Stomil Sanok Wiatka satz, and Stomil Sanok Rus Sp. z o.o., among others.
Ten Square Games SA is a Poland-based mobile games development company. The Company is focused on 3D simulation hobby games for people who seek outdoor experiences on their mobile devices, like fishing or hunting games. Its games are available on social platforms, a network of partner sites, as well as on Google Play, App Store and Microsoft Store.
Torpol SA is a Poland-based company engaged in the construction and engineering industry. The Company offers services in the construction and modernization of railway stations, tracks and lines, including implementation of tracks works within the scope of roadbed, track layout and associated works; construction of the overhead catenary system, power supply, train traffic and control systems; road and civil engineering structures. The urban infrastructure encompasses the modernization of the strategic travelways, present-day track beds and rapid transit tramway systems. Its project portfolio includes the reconstruction of a number of important sections of the railway lines E20, E30 and E65 which form the Polish part of the Pan-European transportation corridors, the modernization of Galkowek railway station, as a part of the reconstruction project of Warsaw-Lodz railway line and the construction of modern tram lines in the cities of Poznan and Gdansk.
Unimot SA, formerly Unimot Gaz SA, is a Poland-based company engaged in the energy industry. The Company focuses on the trading of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The Company offers petroleum gas in bottles and tanks, to be used for heating and industrial applications, providing with the energy such sectors as services, agriculture, industry, household and bulk consumers. The Company is a distributor and an importer of LPG in the domestic market. In addition, the Company offers components from vegetable oils for diesel fuel, to be used as a pure fuel or as bio-component in conventional diesel fuel. Moreover, it is engaged in the wholesale of diesel. The Company also offers energy trade in Poland and Czech Republic, as well as distributes electric power to individuals and business customers. The Company is a part of the Group Unimot. It operates through Energogaz Sp z oo and Tradea Sp z oo.
Voxel SA is a Poland-based company active in the healthcare sector. It provides services in the fields of diagnostic imaging, teleradiology and outsourcing, as well as information technology (IT) systems for hospitals and diagnostic centers. As of December 31, 2011, the Company operated two subsidiaries, 95.24%-owned Alteris SA and wholly owned CDO Sp. z o.o. On November 7, 2012, the Company sold its entire stake in Centrum Diagnostyki i Terapii Onkologicznej Sp. z o.o.
BOS Brokerage, with over 20-year experience, offers brokerage services on the Polish capital market to satisfy numerous needs of institutional and retail investors.
Our comprehensive offer includes brokerage services on both the stock exchange and the forex market as well as brokerage services on the energy market, debt and equity issues, distribution of investment funds and assets management.
BOS Brokerage analytical team belongs to the most appreciated and acclaimed on the market. According to Parkiet daily’s poll (as of January 7, 2019), DM BOŚ equity research team was selected by institutional investors as the third best in Poland. Moreover, the team members won several individual best analysts awards, including Sobiesław Pająk – IT (best analyst), media/telco (ranked 2.), strategy (ranked 4.), Tomasz Rodak – video games (best analyst), overall ranked 5., Łukasz Prokopiuk – chemicals (ranked 2.), mining (ranked 3.), Maciej Wewiórski – real estate (ranked 3.).
In August 2017 Parkiet daily indicated DM BOŚ recommendations as the most accurate over 12 months and according to the Puls Biznesu daily (as of April 11, 2017) DM BOŚ research team was the most prolific on the Polish market and issued the biggest number of recommendations (247) in the years 2014-2016.
The analysts handle over 80 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
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