Report
Nikolaas Faes

Brewers Highlights from first-half results

Diverging performances. Over the first half of the year, brewers were largely able to offset higher raw material costs by higher revenue per hl (price increases, premiumization, channel mix) in absolute terms, although gross margins were under pressure. AB InBev, Carlsberg and Heineken additionally cut into operating expenses allowing the groups to record operating profit growth of respectively 7.5%, 31.8% and 24.6%. Molson Coors and Royal Unibrew were slower off the mark and consequently suffered operating profit declines of respectively 21% and 13%. Going into the second half, brewers will not have the tailwind provided by the re-opening of the on-trade segment in western Europe and will need to raise their prices further and be vigilant on costs. The brewers’ own full-year outlooks imply that Heineken and Royal Unibrew could grow operating profit by about 15%, AB InBev by 7.5% and that Carlsberg could witness a 15% decline (even with a significant upgrade to the outlook, Carlsberg is likely to experience flat operating profit at best in the second half). In terms of 2022/23 PE, AB InBev trades at 16.0/14.3x, Carlsberg at 17.7/17.0x, Heineken at 19.1/17.1x, Royal Unibrew at 18.5/18.1x, and Molson Coors at 13.4/12.4x.
Underlyings
AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG

AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG is an Austria-based company that invests in European companies. The Company is engaged in the investment in undervalued small-cap and micro-cap companies, in medium-sized companies with a growth potential, as well as in pre-initial public offering (IPO) companies. In the fiscal year ended on December 31, 2009, AB Effectenbeteiligungen AG's portfolio included Rhoen Kliniken AG, a Germany-based hospital operator, Realtime Technology AG, a Germany-based provider of visualization technologies and services for industrial applications in the automobile, aviation and consumer goods sectors and RIB Software AG, a Germany-based specialist in building construction, plant engineering and infrastructure management software.

Carlsberg A/S Class B

Carlsberg is engaged in the production and sale of beer and other beverages. Co.'s brewing operations are concentrated in Northern and Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia, while markets outside these regions are serviced through exports and production under license. Co.'s other beverages include soft drinks, water and cider. In addition to beverage activities, Co. is also engaged in real estate.

Heineken Holding N.V.

Heineken Holding is a holding company based in the Netherlands. Through its subsidiaries, Co. promotes the continuity, independence and stability of the Heineken group. This creates the conditions which enable Heineken N.V. to pursue its long-term policy in the interest of the shareholders, the staff and other stakeholders. Co. does not engage in operational activities itself. These have been assigned within the Heineken group to Heineken N.V. and its subsidiaries and associated companies. Through Heineken N.V., Co. is involved in the brewing and selling of beer.

Molson Coors Beverage Company Class B

Molson Coors Brewing is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a brewer and has a portfolio of brands, including Blue Moon, Coors Banquet, Coors Light, Miller Lite, Staropramen, Carling, Molson Canadian and other brands, as well as craft and specialty beers such as Creemore Springs, Cobra, Doom Bar, Henry's Hard and Leinenkugel's. The company's segments include: MillerCoors LLC operating in the U.S.; Molson Coors Canada operating in Canada; Molson Coors Europe operating in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Montenegro, the Republic of Ireland, Romania, Serbia, the U.K. and various other European countries; and Molson Coors International operating in various other countries.

Royal Unibrew A/S

Royal Unibrew is a holding company based in Denmark. Co. is engaged in the production, marketing, sale and distribution of beverages. Co.'s main focus is on branded products, such as beer, malt, and soft drinks, including carbonated soft drinks, mineral water and fruit juices. Co.'s portfolio comprises both its own international brands, such as Royal, Ceres, Faxe, and national brands, such as Lomza in Poland, Lacplesa Alus in Latvia. Co. also offers license-based brands, such Heineken and the Pepsi Group's products, which are distributed in Denmark on the basis of license agreements. Co. is primarily active in Western and Eastern Europe and in the international malt drinks markets. .

Provider
Bryan Garnier
Bryan Garnier

Since 1996, Bryan, Garnier & Co has been growing with an absolute conviction that the investment banking landscape would experience a major revolution: most of the large local generalist banking groups will disappear to the benefit of a handful of global powerhouses, and an emerging group of independent, highly specialised boutique investment banks.

Analysts
Nikolaas Faes

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