Report
Clement Genelot

Food Retail: Navigating stormy waters of deflation and price war

As food deflation risks increasingly diverge from one market to another, we take a fresh look at local price war risks and at the sector earnings cycle. We remain puzzled by the YTD sector derating and underperformance while FY 2024-25 expected EPS growth is still strong. Many investors seem to be
Underlyings
Carrefour SA

Carrefour is a distribution group based in France. Co. is engaged in retailing business, primarily in Europe (France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Poland, and Romania); Asia (China, India, and Taiwan); and Latin America (Argentina and Brazil). Co. offers a variety of fresh produce, products from local suppliers and major-brand products. Co. operates Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Convenience stores and Cash & Carry stores, as well as food and non-food e-commerce sites. Co. also offers services such as financial and insurance services, travel, entertainment, after-sales services, and leasing of commercial vehicles. As of Dec 31 2013 Co. operated 10,105 stores under its brand.

Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA

Casino Guichard-Perrachon is a food retailer based in France. Co. operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, discount stores, convenience stores and cafeterias. Co.'s stores are discount stores selling groceries and consumer goods, and providing services like financial and insurance services, real estate, and restaurants. Co. operates hypermarkets under the brand Geant Casino; urban and rural supermarkets under the brand Casino Supermarches; city-centre supermarkets under the brand Monoprix; convenience/national superettes under the brands Petit Casino, Vival and Spar; covenience-paris area stores under the brand Marche Franprix; and discount stores under the brand Leader Price.

Jeronimo Martins SGPS S.A.

Jeronimo Martins S.G.P.S. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a food distribution company with operations in Poland and Portugal. Co. operates in four segments: Portugal Retail, which comprises the business unit of JMR - Gestao de Empresas de Retalho, SGPS, S.A. (Pingo Doce supermarkets); Portugal Cash & Carry, which includes the wholesale business unit Recheio; Poland Retail, which includes the business unit with the brand Biedronka; and Others, which includes marketing services and representations, restaurants in Portugal, health and beauty retail in Poland, and its retail business in Colombia.

Provider
Bryan Garnier
Bryan Garnier

Since 1996, Bryan, Garnier & Co has been growing with an absolute conviction that the investment banking landscape would experience a major revolution: most of the large local generalist banking groups will disappear to the benefit of a handful of global powerhouses, and an emerging group of independent, highly specialised boutique investment banks.

Analysts
Clement Genelot

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