Board the Train or Get Left Behind In this report, we analyse the hottest trend in the food retail and e-commercesector in 2021: “quick commerce”.
Board the Train or Get Left Behind In this report, we analyse the hottest trend in the food retail and e-commercesector in 2021: “quick commerce”.We adopt a contrarian and optimistic view that quick commerce has a bright future and should therefore be takenseriously by other players in adjacent sectors.
• Emerging a few years ago already, quick commerce may not be a new businessbut the Covid pandemic has prompted a change in dimension in this tiny nichemarket, turning it into a sizeable segment within the large grocery market thatremains underpenetrated in terms of e-commerce. Since 2018, EUR6bn hasbeen raised for quick commerce and there are now 32 players throughout theworld, the majority of which in Europe.
• Using a top-down approach, we estimate that quick commerce can digitise 2-4% of the grocery market depending on the country, thereby amounting toc.EUR30bn in Europe alone. This leaves enough room for dozens of dark storesin each capital city and even hundreds spread across some countries.Profitability is clearly not the name of the game for now, with EBITDA marginsof -30 to -50% but we have identified several levers to break even and movetowards high single-digit EBITDA margins from a two/three-year perspective.
• Both restaurant meal delivery platforms and food retailers should embracedark stores. Delivery platforms are facing their fourth revolution and will needdark stores to strengthen their platform utility and network effect. Foodretailers cannot simply wait for new digital entrants to eat into theirprofitable urban convenience cake. Given that there is a clear first-moveradvantage in the quick commerce segment, we believe all players will have toquickly board the train, and probably through M&A.
• Among the incumbent players, Delivery Hero, Glovo and Rappi are alreadyon the quick commerce train. Uber Eats, DoorDash, Deliveroo, Just EatTakeaway and Carrefour are currently assessing their options and seemready to move or start some tests. But Casino and Ahold Delhaize couldmiss the train.
Carrefour is a distribution group based in France. Co. is engaged in retailing business, primarily in Europe (France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Poland, and Romania); Asia (China, India, and Taiwan); and Latin America (Argentina and Brazil). Co. offers a variety of fresh produce, products from local suppliers and major-brand products. Co. operates Hypermarkets, Supermarkets, Convenience stores and Cash & Carry stores, as well as food and non-food e-commerce sites. Co. also offers services such as financial and insurance services, travel, entertainment, after-sales services, and leasing of commercial vehicles. As of Dec 31 2013 Co. operated 10,105 stores under its brand.
Casino Guichard-Perrachon is a food retailer based in France. Co. operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, discount stores, convenience stores and cafeterias. Co.'s stores are discount stores selling groceries and consumer goods, and providing services like financial and insurance services, real estate, and restaurants. Co. operates hypermarkets under the brand Geant Casino; urban and rural supermarkets under the brand Casino Supermarches; city-centre supermarkets under the brand Monoprix; convenience/national superettes under the brands Petit Casino, Vival and Spar; covenience-paris area stores under the brand Marche Franprix; and discount stores under the brand Leader Price.
Delivery Hero SE is a Germany-based company, which is primarily engaged in the food industry. The Company operates as a provider of online food delivery services from restaurants and cafes. The Company offers pizza, burger, organic food, vegan cuisine, and Asian dishes, among others. Its portfolio of brands comprises Foodpanda, Lieferheld, Foodora, PedidosYa, Clickdelivery, Talabat, Yemeksepeti, Donesi, Pauza, Hungerstation, Hellofood, Otlob and others. The Company operates globally, on the territory of more than 40 countries, comprising Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, and the Americas. The Company's services are available through Web version and mobile application.
Takeaway.com NV. Takeaway.com NV, formerly Takeaway Com Holding BV, is a company based in the Netherlands that operates an online food delivery marketplace. The Company focuses on connecting consumers and restaurants, and allows users to order food from nearby restaurants and have the food delivered to their homes. The Company transmits the order placed by customers and forwards it to restaurants, which prepare and deliver the meal. It is present in Portugal, France, Switzerland, Austria, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and Vietnam, and operates the Websites Lieferando.de, Lieferservice.at, Lieferservice.ch, Pizza.be, Pizza.fr, Pizza.lu, Pizza.pl, Pyszne.pl, BGmenu.com, Oliviera.ro, Takeaway.com, Thuisbezorgd.nl and Vietnammm.com. The platforms feature various kinds of restaurants.
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize is an international group of supermarket and foodservice operators based in Europe and the U.S. Co. operates supermarkets and convenience stores. In addition, Co. provides online food retailing services. Co. also finances, develops and manages store sites and shopping centers. Ahold Europe comprises Albert Heijn in the Netherlands and Belgium; Etos, Gall & Gall, and albert.nl in the Netherlands; and Albert / Hypernova in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Ahold USA is organized into four retail divisions: Giant Carlisle, Giant Landover, Stop & Shop New England, and Stop & Shop New York Metro. The Peapod online business is also part of Ahold USA.
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