Iliad: Italian “revoluzione†questions standalone mobile profitability
Iliad: (BUY, Fair Value EUR202 vs. EUR205 (+36%))Italian “revoluzione†questions standalone mobile profitability
Iliad’s Italian offer announced yesterday is definitely disruptive, and we expect a successful launch. We have reviewed our market share target up 2ppts to 13%, but our arpu estimate is down 30%. Assuming no significant price increases in the medium term, our Italian contribution to Iliad’s fair value is thus down to EUR7 from EUR10. More than ever we believe more significant value creation might come from a future launch in fixed.
Iliad is an operator in the French internet access & telecommunications markets. Co. divides its operations into three business segments: Broadband, Traditional Telephony, and Retail Telecom. Broadband includes Internet service provider operations, hosting services, user assistance operations & operations related to the rollout of the FTTH (fiber-to-the-home) network. Traditional Telephony includes switched landline telephony (One.Tel and Iliad Telecom), directory services (mainly the ANNU reverse look-up directory accessible by Minitel, telephone, Internet and SMS text messaging) and e-commerce operations (Assunet.com). Retail Telecom offers various mobile phones & services to customers.
Since 1996, Bryan, Garnier & Co has been growing with an absolute conviction that the investment banking landscape would experience a major revolution: most of the large local generalist banking groups will disappear to the benefit of a handful of global powerhouses, and an emerging group of independent, highly specialised boutique investment banks.
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