MBWS: Consensus for EBITDA in 2018 is overly optimistic
MBWS: (SELL vs. NEUTRAL, Fair Value EUR6,3 vs. EUR6,5 (-20%))Consensus for EBITDA in 2018 is overly optimistic
We cut our 2018 EBITDA assumption from EUR6.5m to EUR3m due to ongoing destocking in Poland and the late activation of the new Lancut distillery which is just in test mode right now. Consensus expectations is too high (EUR5m). Our Fair Value is cut from EUR6.5 to EUR6.3, which points to a downside of 25% given the strong share performance over the last month (+24.2% in absolute and +25.7% vs DJ Stoxx). We downgrade the stock to Sell.
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits is a wine and spirit company which is engaged in the production and distribution of wines and spirits mainly in Europe and in the U.S.A. Co.'s products can be divided into three categories: Vodka and Spirits, Wines, and Other beverages. Co. develops a portfolio of spirit brand with in particular: Youri Dolgorouki; Sobieski; Marie Brizard; Old Lady's; Berger; “PL Polonaise”; Starogardzka; Balsam Pomorski; Krakowska; Zawisza. Co. operates geographically in Poland, Western Europe, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Other countries.
Since 1996, Bryan, Garnier & Co has been growing with an absolute conviction that the investment banking landscape would experience a major revolution: most of the large local generalist banking groups will disappear to the benefit of a handful of global powerhouses, and an emerging group of independent, highly specialised boutique investment banks.
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