Report
Cedric Rossi

SAFILO | NEUTRAL | Fair Value EUR4.5 vs. EUR5 Reignition mode

Safilo: (NEUTRAL, Fair Value EUR4.5 vs. EUR5 (+10%))
Reignition mode
We consider the 2020 sales guidance of EUR1-1.02bn as realistic, as it takes into account SLF’s new paradigm, i.e. final exit of Gucci volume contract in 2019-20, growth in line with the industry, etc. The adj. EBITDA target is more ambitious (8-10% vs. +4-5%e in 2018) since nearly 80% of the margin improvement would stem from cost savings initiatives. More importantly, these targets require perfect execution on which previous managements failed to ensure in the long run. Consequently, our 2020 sales forecast is now aligned with guidance while we remain more conservative with regard to the margin objective (BG: 7%e). Following our estimates adjustments, we nudge down our FV to EUR4.5 vs. EUR5 initially. Neutral recommendation confirmed.
Underlying
Safilo Group S.p.A.

Safilo engages in the design, production, wholesale, and retail distribution of prescription eyewear, sunglasses, sports eyewear, and accessories. Co. also provides optical frames, technical sports goggles, ski goggles, and helmets. Co. provides its products under various brands such as Safilo and Smith, as well as under the licensed brands, such as Alexander McQueen and Banana Republic. Co. serves opticians, optometrists, ophthalmologists, distribution chains, department stores, specialized retailers, licensors' own stores, duty free shops, and sports shops through independent distributors and agents, as well as through its own branches in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally.

Provider
Bryan Garnier
Bryan Garnier

Since 1996, Bryan, Garnier & Co has been growing with an absolute conviction that the investment banking landscape would experience a major revolution: most of the large local generalist banking groups will disappear to the benefit of a handful of global powerhouses, and an emerging group of independent, highly specialised boutique investment banks.

Analysts
Cedric Rossi

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