TEMENOS - NEUTRAL vs. BUY | CHF58 VS. CHF118 (+9%) The wake-up call
We downgrade our rating to Neutral from Buy and have cut our DCF-derived target price to CHF58 from CHF118 - with very limited upside potential - following the profit warning announced on 13th October. We have slashed our adj. EPS estimates by 18-28% over 2022-2025, and have been more conservative in our medium-term assumptions and WACC. In this context of absence of economic visibility, banks think twice before investing in a transformation project, thus translating into lenghtened decision cycles – notwithstanding poor sales execution during the last few months. Finally, while share price performance has been poor since 2019, fundamental questions remain on company-specific challenges: subscriptions and SaaS, US growth, people, and ways to create more value for shareholders.Temenos is engaged in the development, marketing and sale of banking software systems. Co. is also involved in supporting the implementation of the systems at various client locations around the world as well as in offering help desk support services to existing users of TEMENOS software systems. Co.'s client base consists of banking and other financial services institutions. Co.'s segments include: Product, which is engaged in marketing, licensing and maintaining Co.'s software solutions, including software development fees for requested functionality, as well as providing hosting arrangements; and Services, which represents various implementation services such as consulting and training.
Since 1996, Bryan, Garnier & Co has been growing with an absolute conviction that the investment banking landscape would experience a major revolution: most of the large local generalist banking groups will disappear to the benefit of a handful of global powerhouses, and an emerging group of independent, highly specialised boutique investment banks.
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