Glapinski downplays CPI spike, reaffirms view rates likely flat to end of term
- MPC holds rates on continued expectation CPI inflation will ease after early 2020 spike- Glapinski says Dec spike to 3.4% y/y needs to be confirmed, isn't that far from NBP expectations
- He says NBP forecasts inflation of 3.6% y/y in Jan and 3.8% in Feb, which isn't far from 3.4%
- Glapinski indicates inflation is unlikely to exceed 4% y/y in early 2020, though it is to be high in Q1 and Q2
- Glapinski chalks up inflation rise mainly to supply and other factors outside of MPC's control
- Glapinski says inflation to continue to be close to Nov projection, though Mar projection to see slight uptick in forecast
- New MPC member Kochalski says there is no reason to hike rates, seems dovish
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