Report

MinFin keeps GDP growth forecast at 2% in 2020, expects recovery in 2021

- GDP growth expected to reach 2.2% in 2021, on stronger external demand
- Inflation projections were unsurprisingly upgraded, inflation to remain above or close to 3% y/y in H1 2020
- Wage growth to start moderating, though likely to remain robust in 2020 and 2021; unemployment will rise, but slowly
- Public finances to see moderation as well, with general government budget to be balanced in 2020; fiscal policy to remain slightly pro-cyclical, though
- We see lack of further pessimism from finance ministry as a good sign
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