Report

NBH revises inflation projection for 2020 down mostly on non-core items

- Core inflation to slow down due to lower imported inflation and domestic demand, second-round effect from oil price drop
- One-month temporary shutdown in automotive sector to reduce GDP growth by 0.3-0.4pps
- One-month impact from coronavirus epidemic on affected sectors estimated to cost 0.9-1.3pps to GDP growth
- NBH seems to work with most favourable coronavirus scenarios, GDP growth is therefore optimistic, in our view
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