Report

NBR keeps end-2019 inflation forecast at 4.2%, slightly ups it for end-2020

- Marginal upward revision of cumulative contribution of exogenous components, due to tobacco price growth
- Adjusted CORE2 inflation forecast is maintained, even though some acceleration occurred in H1
- Economic growth in 2019 is seen similar with 2018, investment may improve in absence of further adverse effects of recent fiscal measures
- CA gap to deteriorate further, may stop widening in 2020
- Upward risks to forecast persist, mainly due to domestic factors
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