Synthèse conjoncturelle du 12 au 18 juillet : Le cycle industriel mondial paraît porteur mais les déséquilibres ne se résorbent pas
Le cycle industriel mondial semble engagé dans un moment plutôt favorable comme le montre la production industrielle des 51 principales économies. Ce regain d'activité s'accompagne cependant d'un accroissement des déséquilibres mondiaux.
Aux Etats-Unis, l'administration Trump semble incapable de mettre en application les promesses électorales et malgré la performance de la production industrielle et des marchés boursiers, les signes de surchauffe des prix et de l’activité semblent plutôt ténus pouvant expliquer les propos récents de J. Yellen.
Les signes d’un renforcement de l’inflation se sont manifestés un peu plus nettement dans la zone euro. La BCE devrait néanmoins rester prudente à l’occasion du prochain Conseil des gouverneurs et continuer de favoriser la croissance européenne, en particulier par le canal du crédit.
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