Synthèse conjoncturelle du 14 au 20 juin 2017 : L'effet ciseau entre les marchés américains et européens semble stabilisé
Chaque semaine une analyse synthétique des faits et chiffres marquants de la conjoncture mondiale.
L’effet ciseaux qui s’amplifiait ces semaines entre les économies et marchés américains et européens paraît s’être stabilisé.
L’euro reste ancré autour de 1,12 dollars depuis fin mai. L’écart entre le taux souverain à 10 ans américain et allemand a cessé de progresser.
La décision largement attendue de la Fed de relever le taux des Federal Funds a contribué à maintenir le taux à 10 ans américain à 2,2 %. L'écart entre les taux à 10 ans et à 3 mois est au un plus bas depuis 2008.
Par ailleurs, dans un contexte de recul de l'inflation le rebond des salaires réels conforte le scénario d'une accélération américaine au 2° trimestre. Dans le même temps, l’économie de la zone euro émet des signaux un peu moins euphoriques, ce qui invite à rester prudent sur son potentiel.
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