Synthèse du 19 au 26 septembre 2017 - Les marchés ignorent les risques associés aux élections allemandes pour l'avenir de la zone euro
Chaque semaine, une analyse synthétique des faits et chiffres marquants de la conjoncture économique et financière mondiale + un tableau de bord des derniers indicateurs à ne pas manquer.
Le résultat des élections fédérales allemandes a eu un impact limité sur les marchés. Les écarts de taux en zone euro ont connu une hausse minime, comme les bourses européennes, et l'euro n'a pas bougé.
La victoire de la CDU/CSU suscitait certes peu de doutes et le contexte économique allemand est favorable. Mais l’enjeu de ces élections est aussi européen.
La nouvelle coalition rassemblerait a priori les écologistes de Die Grünen et les libéraux du FDP. Or ces derniers sont hostiles à l’idée d’une intégration renforcée, et en particulier de transferts intra-européens. les perspectives du renforcement institutionnel - indispensable - de la zone euro s'en trouvent hypothéquées. Il n’est pas sûr que les marchés aient intégré ce risque dans l'immédiat.
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