Report
Aarti Magan ...
  • Moritz Steinbauer
  • Reid Usher
  • Vikas Munjal

DBRS Morningstar Global 2023 Retail Outlook: Rough Times Ahead for Discretionary Retail

DBRS Morningstar released a commentary titled “Global 2023 Retail Outlook: Rough Times Ahead for Discretionary Retail.” Our negative outlook for retailers globally in 2023 reflects our view that the credit risk profiles of such companies in our ratings portfolio will be pressured, albeit to varying degrees, depending on where they are on the discretionary to nondiscretionary spectrum, as a result of shrinking consumer wallets, persistent levels of inflation, and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. At the same time, we expect retailers further on the consumer staples end of the spectrum or those, such as dollar stores, that offer value-based products, to be less adversely affected or to even benefit from higher demand and an increased number of visits from price-sensitive customers.

“We believe that the aforementioned challenges could materially weaken credit risk profiles of discretionary retailers and/or affect their ongoing recovery, even more so for retailers with comparatively weaker financial profiles; as a result, this could lead to negative rating actions or the delay/suspension of positive rating actions that were previously envisaged. At the same time, we expect credit risk profiles of discount stores or retailers with less discretionary products to remain relatively stable, given their ability to pass through most cost increases amid a shift in consumer behaviour toward value-based or discounted products. ” notes Vikas Munjal, Vice President, Credit Ratings, Diversified Industries.
Underlyings
Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the operation of membership warehouses based on the concept of providing its members low prices on a selection of nationally branded and private-label products. The company's merchandise are: food and sundries, which include dry foods, packaged foods, and groceries, snack foods, candy, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; hardlines, which include appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio; fresh food, which include meat, produce, deli, and bakery; softlines, which include apparel and small appliances; and ancillary, which include gas stations and pharmacy businesses.

Home Depot, Inc., The

Nordstrom Inc.

Nordstrom is a fashion retailer providing a selection of brand-name and private label apparel, shoes, cosmetics and accessories for women, men, young adults and children. The company serves customers through two businesses: Full-Price and Off-Price. The company's operations consist of the company's Nordstrom U.S. and Canada full-line stores, U.S. and Canada Nordstrom Rack stores, Jeffrey boutiques, Last Chance clearance stores, Trunk Club clubhouses and Nordstrom Local. Additionally, customers are served online through Nordstrom.com, Nordstromrack.com, HauteLook and TrunkClub.com.

Walmart Inc.

Walmart is engaged in global operations of retail, wholesale and other units, as well as eCommerce, located throughout the U.S., Africa, Argentina, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India, Japan, Mexico and the U.K. The company's operations are conducted in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., which is a mass merchandiser of consumer products, operating under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands, as well as walmart.com, jet.com and other eCommerce brands; Walmart International, which includes various formats divided into retail, wholesale and other categories; and Sam's Club, which is a membership-only warehouse club that also operates samsclub.com.

Provider
DBRS Morningstar
DBRS Morningstar

DBRS Morningstar is a global credit ratings business with 700 employees in eight offices globally. DBRS and Morningstar Credit Ratings are committed to empowering investor success, serving the market through leading-edge technology and raising the bar for the industry.

Together, we are the world’s fourth largest credit ratings agency and a market leader in Canada, the U.S. and Europe in multiple asset classes. We rate more than 2,600 issuers and 54,000 securities worldwide and are driven to bring more clarity, diversity and responsiveness to the ratings process. Our approach and size provide the agility to respond to customers’ needs, while being large enough to provide the necessary expertise and resources. For more details visit us at dbrs.com.

Analysts
Aarti Magan

Moritz Steinbauer

Reid Usher

Vikas Munjal

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