European RMBS 2023 Outlook
This commentary details our expectations for residential mortgage performance and our residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS) ratings outlook across Europe in 2023.Mortgage borrowers in Europe are learning to live with higher mortgage rates, especially new borrowers and borrowers nearing the end of their mortgage rate period, who will find their mortgages much more expensive than before. While we expect house-price corrections across most of Europe, the extent and severity of the correction may vary.
By number of transactions, 2022 had fewer issuances than expected due to volatile market conditions. With a gradual reopening of the investor-placed market, we expect the number of rated transactions to increase to about 80 in 2023, in line with 2021 levels. However, in terms of overall issuance volumes, we expect a contraction to about EUR 80 billion in 2023 from EUR 109 billion in 2022.
The report contains dedicated sections to the five main RMBS markets that we cover: the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain.
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