China's Credit Restraints Have Global Implications
Early economic exchanges between the Trump Administration and China defy the bellicosity of the US Presidential Election campaign. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is attempting to reduce excessive risk-taking in the financial system vis-à -vis deliberately slowing economic growth. Since 2012, China’s economy has experienced stop-go cycles, where subsequent credit easing has increasingly resulted in riskier lending. The PBoC faces big challenges implementing macro prudential policies without slowing the economy, something which the Fed managed to avoid. China needs to avoid the fate that befell Japan after its credit bubble burst in the late-1980s with the arrival of a corporate balance sheet recession that lasted sixteen years. Financial markets in China have struggled since the arrival of credit restraining measures. Overseas markets still remain complacent about the risks of overtightening, but this could change quickly as evidence of economic slowdown mounts.​
DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the intention of delivering independent global macro investment insights and new thematic long-term ideas to investors, along with an agnostic opinion of the markets.
Said DeSaque has over 29 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services, primarily based in London. His working role has involved extensive travel around the world, bringing him into contact with investors of different cultural backgrounds and investment requirements. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist and Investment Strategist at US banks Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he became Head of the London Economics Department in 1996. This role allowed him to engage with senior investment professionals, alongside regulators and provided a unique perspective of market intelligence at work.
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