Reality Bites in the US Economy
​Estimates for Q1 US real GDP growth have been steadily falling, thereby raising the importance of Q2 economic data for Fed policy. Financial markets have been quickly scaling back the chances of a federal funds rate increase at June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Investors had unrealistic expectations for a quick economic recalibration. Rhetorical animal spirits will not produce higher investment or faster growth unless companies are convinced the Trump Administration’s agenda will not be significantly diluted. Equity investors and the FOMC hold differing views about the size of untapped potential in the US economy, with the latter believing in a much lower speed limit. Deregulation may enhance risk-taking, but it does not guarantee a renaissance in productivity based on the outcome of events during President Reagan’s first term in office.
DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the intention of delivering independent global macro investment insights and new thematic long-term ideas to investors, along with an agnostic opinion of the markets.
Said DeSaque has over 29 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services, primarily based in London. His working role has involved extensive travel around the world, bringing him into contact with investors of different cultural backgrounds and investment requirements. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist and Investment Strategist at US banks Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he became Head of the London Economics Department in 1996. This role allowed him to engage with senior investment professionals, alongside regulators and provided a unique perspective of market intelligence at work.
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