Recent US House Price Gains Fuel Fears of New Bubble
​Some commentators have recently been expressing concern about the return of bubble conditions to the US housing sector. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller measure, US house prices have now surpassed their prior February 2007 peak, partly due to a lack of available supply. Nationally, the current unemployment rate in construction would not suggest that inadequate labour supply is preventing higher levels of homebuilding. Rising homebuilding costs in the US could be compounded further by the threat of a 20% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber being imposed by the Trump Administration. The long-term outlook for US housing will critically hinge on any prospective changes to the status of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the Trump Administration, whereby a fully private system would have higher mortgage rates and deploy the expanded use of adjustable rate mortgages.
DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the intention of delivering independent global macro investment insights and new thematic long-term ideas to investors, along with an agnostic opinion of the markets.
Said DeSaque has over 29 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services, primarily based in London. His working role has involved extensive travel around the world, bringing him into contact with investors of different cultural backgrounds and investment requirements. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist and Investment Strategist at US banks Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he became Head of the London Economics Department in 1996. This role allowed him to engage with senior investment professionals, alongside regulators and provided a unique perspective of market intelligence at work.
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