DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

 

Nicolas McBeath
  • Nicolas McBeath

March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.

Marcus Develius
  • Marcus Develius

Instalco (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - Trough to Triumph

Following efforts to strengthen its long-term competitiveness in Q4, we expect a 4% YOY decline in organic growth in Q1 – but then a gradual recovery through 2025, led by a cautiously improving installation market, as highlighted in the Q4 CEO statements. We have cut our 2025e and 2026e EBITA by 3% respectively and thus lowered our target price to SEK46 (48), but with still-healthy upside potential, we reiterate our BUY.

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (

Joachim Gunell
  • Joachim Gunell

Ericsson (Hold, TP: SEK84.00) - Gross margin cracks start to form

We expect Q1 adj. EBITA to beat Infront consensus by 10%. However, Ericsson’s challenges for 2025e are mounting: 1) gross margin headwinds (key for its share price); 2) faded earnings and FCF momentum with -2% adj. EBITA and -40% FCF growth YOY forecasts after a strong 2024; 3) a low likelihood of share buybacks in 2025, despite its overcapitalisation; and 4) the potential CEO succession could create a wait-and-see scenario. We have lowered our 2025e adj. EPS by 18% (mainly FX) and reiterate our...

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