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EconoInsights_Monthly Economic and Capital Market Overview_June 2025

Bangladesh’s economy is navigating a challenging landscape, with provisional GDP growth for FY’25 estimated at a sluggish 3.97%—a three-decade low excluding the pandemic—reflecting a slowdown in economic activity amid a post-regime transition. Despite these challenges, signs of gradual recovery are emerging, supported by rising exports, increased remittance inflows, and stabilized foreign exchange reserves, which have eased pressure on the country’s balance of payments. Additionally, the recent USD 1.3 billion loan disbursement from the IMF, along with around USD 2 billion in budget support expected from development partners, is anticipated to ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves and help stabilize the external sector, thereby reinforcing recovery efforts. However, persistent political uncertainty over the transition to an elected government, ongoing financial sector challenges, and the potential outcome of the government's negotiations with the USTR on reciprocal tariffs remain key concerns.