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AFT Pharmaceuticals - Global growth despite tough macro environment

AFT Pharmaceuticals reported solid H124 top-line growth, driven by strong momentum in the Asian and international markets. H124 revenues of NZ$83.6m grew 27.2% from H123, bolstered by 171.4% and 47.8% y o y growth in international and Asian markets. Although margins came in softer than expected (operating margin of 3.9% vs 5.3% in H123) with increased upfront launch, marketing and R&D spending, particularly in the domestic ANZ markets, management expects margins to recover in H2 as the business scales in these newly launched markets. Given the H1 run rate and seasonality (H2-weighted business model), we raise our top-line estimates for FY24 and FY25 but temper near-term operating profit expectations, in line with management’s FY24 operating profit guidance of NZ$22–24m. Longer term, we anticipate a lift from the recent FDA approval of Maxigesic IV. As a result of these adjustments, our valuation resets to NZ$723m or NZ$6.90/share, up from NZ$644m or NZ$6.14/share previously.