Outlook: Awaiting inflection in Adasuve volumes
Alexza's investment case continues to rest on the commercial prospects for Adasuve, a rapid-inhalation treatment for acute agitation in adult schizophrenia or bipolar disorder patients. Adasuve offers speed and dosing reliability advantages in treating acute agitation. Although we have lengthened the sales ramp-up timeline given the 9m14 revenue pace, our 20% peak market share assumption remains unchanged. Given a slower sales ramp up than expected, we expect Alexza will need to raise $20m in capital in H215 to fund operations. Our new equity valuation of $3.67/share (from $4.71 previously) does not reflect this funding gap or requirement.
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