Argent Biopharma - Valuation report
We value Argent at an un-risked net present value (NPV) of US$1.1bn. Adjusting for the company’s specified probabilities of success (PoS) for its three clinical programmes gives a risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) of US$327m or US$6.7 per share. The highest contribution is from CannEpil (NPV of US$508m, PoS 35%), a Phase II, medical-grade cannabinoid being developed for drug-resistant epilepsy. CimetrA, a plant-derived formulation with preclinical and clinical activity as an anti-inflammatory agent, is the other key contributor. We expect initial therapeutic targets to be acute lung injury and ARDS (NPV of US$239m, PoS 50%). CogniCann, a Phase I asset (cannabinoid) in development for symptoms of dementia, contributes US$416m to the NPV, with a 15% risk adjustment. IND filings with the FDA are expected in 2025, with trial launch led by CannEpil. We project a 2030 launch for CannEpil, 2031 for CimetrA and 2033 for CogniCann.
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