FREE

Endeavour Mining - Leaner and ready to grow

In the wake of the release of Edison’s updated long-term gold price assumptions (Shades of the 1970s), we have amended our forecasts for Endeavour, prior to the release of its Q323 results on 9 November. On a like-for-like basis, this has resulted in a 13.7% increase in our absolute valuation of the company to US$33.52/share. On a headline basis, it compares with a valuation of US$36.73/share prior to the sales of Boungou and Wahgnion, a decline of only 8.7%. Following the sale of the two mines, Endeavour updated its FY23 guidance from 1,325–1,425koz (including Wahgnion and Boungou) to 1,060–1,135koz, while its AISC guidance has improved to US$895–950/oz (cf US$940–995/oz). As previously indicated, performance is expected to be weighted towards H223, predominantly Q423, driven largely by Hounde, Sabodala-Massawa and Mana as focus is shifted towards production from development. In the meantime, Endeavour has continued with its shareholder returns programme, declaring a US$100m (US$0.40/share) interim dividend for H123 and repurchasing US$20m worth of shares in Q323.