Recapitalising to maximise value
Green Dragon Gas (GDG) has laid the foundations for what could be a world-class CBM development; however, the company’s ability to develop and monetise the resource before PSC expiry in 2035 is contingent on funding. 2P reserves (net 549bcf) continue to rise as GDG proves gas deliverability from incremental coal seams. As it stands, GDG is funding rather than resource constrained. In this note we look at three valuation scenarios; in our base case we assume that GDG uses RBL debt capacity (contingent on overall development plan approval) to drill additional LiFaBriC wells on the GSS block, driving a group core valuation of 227p/share – assuming well deliverability in line with company type curves. We see blue-sky potential for this to rise to a RENAV of 591p/share if GDG had no funding constraints and drilling activity on GSS/GCZ and GSN was stepped up materially, accessing 3P CBM reserves.Green Dragon Gas is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the exploration, development and production of coal bed methane in the People's Republic of China (PRC). The coal bed methane operations in the PRC are conducted through production sharing arrangements with China United Coal Bed Methane Corporation Ltd. As of Dec 31 2012, Co. conducted its businesses through these segments: sales of coal bed methane gas; transportation; pipelined gas distribution; gas stations sales; gas filling equipment sales; and corporate. As of the same date, Co. had net proved reserves of 59.00 billion cubic feet of coal bed methane.
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