Greggs - Recovering better than expected
Gregg’s trading update indicates a strong rebound in trading since the re-opening of non-essential retail in April 2021, with positive like-for-like (LFL) sales growth versus FY19, which is earlier than we had expected. This is significant as it has been achieved despite not operating at full potential (ie reduced SKUs, shorter opening hours and other social distancing measures) and competition has been more limited, though both will normalise in coming months. With strong cost controls, including temporary benefits, the board believes that FY21 profits could be around 2019 levels in the absence of further restrictions. We upgrade our FY21 PBT forecasts by 64%, due to a less pessimistic LFL sales assumption.Greggs is a bakery food on-the-go retailer. Co. provides a range of fresh bakery goods, sandwiches and drinks in its shops. Co. also provides frozen bakery products to its wholesale customers. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had 1,764 shops in operation Co. had 157 franchised shops operating in travel and other convenience locations, with a particular focus on motorway services and petrol forecourts. Co.'s Balanced Choice products provide choices from a selection of freshly prepared sandwiches, wraps, salads, yoghurts, hot soups, porridge pots and freshly baked savouries.
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