Nicox - Revising NCX-470 timelines given Denali delay
Nicox reported H122 results with operating cash burn rates mildly above our assumptions, while maintaining its guidance that its funds on hand should be sufficient to maintain operations into Q423, based on the development of NCX-470 alone. The company has pushed back its expected timeline for the release of primary efficacy data from the Denali NCX-470 Phase III study to after 2024 (from ‘after 2023’). Nicox has also decided to partner NCX-4251, its dry eye disease (DED) product candidate, for the US market rather than pursue further clinical development. Given these events, we now obtain a rNPV valuation of €224.0m (versus €297.8m previously). We highlight that Nicox expects to report primary efficacy data from the Mont Blanc NCX-470 Phase III trial in early November. Positive top-line study data, demonstrating superior intraocular pressure (IOP) lowering efficacy to latanoprost, would materially de-risk future NCX-470 development and likely drive a re-rating of the stock.Nicox is engaged in the ophthalmic market. Co. markets several ophthalmic products in the United States and Europe with a portfolio of therapies and diagnostic tools that can help people to enhance their sight. Co. has developed naproxcinod, the first member of the Cyclooxygenase-Inhibiting Nitric Oxide-Donating (CINOD) class of anti-inflammatory agents, for the treatment of the signs and symptoms of osteoarthritis. Beyond naproxcinod, Co. has a pipeline containing multiple nitric oxide-donating NCEs, which are in clinical development with partners for the treatment of diseases, such as hypertension, glaucoma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).
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