Nicox - Revisiting commercial assumptions
We are adjusting our assumptions for Nicox’s strategy for lead candidate NCX-470. We now assume the company will rely on external partners or licensees to market the drug for treating glaucoma and ocular hypertension (OHTN), rather than develop resources and infrastructure to commercialise the drug internally. We have increased our NCX-470 forecasts for China, offset by more conservative assumptions in Europe. We have also raised our estimates for licence revenue for Zerviate sales in China following the recent submission of a new drug application (NDA) by Nicox’s licensee, Ocumension, in this market, offset by a reduction in our forecasts for US Zerviate-related revenue. Altogether, our rNPV is lower, at €108.0m (vs €166.8m previously), largely because we assume that by out-licensing NCX-470, Nicox’s eventual share of the drug’s related sales and operating income will be lower than previously assumed.Nicox is engaged in the ophthalmic market. Co. markets several ophthalmic products in the United States and Europe with a portfolio of therapies and diagnostic tools that can help people to enhance their sight. Co. has developed naproxcinod, the first member of the Cyclooxygenase-Inhibiting Nitric Oxide-Donating (CINOD) class of anti-inflammatory agents, for the treatment of the signs and symptoms of osteoarthritis. Beyond naproxcinod, Co. has a pipeline containing multiple nitric oxide-donating NCEs, which are in clinical development with partners for the treatment of diseases, such as hypertension, glaucoma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).
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