OpGen - Near-term adjustments with outlook unchanged
OpGen’s valuation case rests on its ability to develop and commercialize its suite of differentiated diagnostic products, focused on combating anti-microbial resistance (AMR). Q322 was marked by several developments on this front (see our last note), albeit offset with market caution in the current macroeconomic environment. This resulted in revised FY22 guidance (revenue of $2.5–3.0m versus c $4.6m previously) with the Q322 results. The delayed sales cycle conversions, along with the regulatory logjam in China, has prompted us to review our projections. Our revised estimates reflect near-term conservatism while largely maintaining our long-term outlook. Our overall valuation resets to $67.5m ($1.2/share) from $84.6m or $1.46/share (pending upcoming share consolidation). We also note that at current burn rates, OpGen is likely to need to raise funds in the near term to continue supporting its development plans.
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