Report

SIGA Technologies - Onwards and upwards with strong FY23

SIGA Technologies has delivered its best top-line performance in the last five years, supported by a late surge in TPOXX deliveries across both domestic and international markets. FY23 product revenues grew 50.8% to $130.7m, driven by Q423 BARDA deliveries and international orders, resulting in overall revenues increasing to $139.9m (+26.3% y-o-y). Barring packaging-related bottlenecks, which delayed some deliveries to Q124, there could have been incremental upside to meet our $172.6m revenue estimate. The strong cash flow generation and healthy balance sheet (year-end net cash balance of $150.1m) was reflected in the company’s declaration of a special cash dividend of $0.6/share ($42.7m total; >60% payout ratio). Given sales visibility on further BARDA stockpile replenishments and increasing international market traction, we expect FY24 to be another strong year. We revise our FY24 estimates and now expect PEP and pediatric launches in 2026 (2025 previously), resulting in our valuation adjusting to $16.51/share (versus $17.24/share previously).
Underlying
Siga Technologies Inc.

SIGA Technologies is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company focused on the health security market. Health security comprises countermeasures for biological, chemical, radiological and nuclear attacks, vaccines and therapies for emerging infectious diseases, and health preparedness. The company's primary product is an oral formulation of TPOXX?, an antiviral drug for the treatment of human smallpox disease caused by variola virus. The United States Food and Drug Administration has approved oral TPOXX? for the treatment of smallpox.

Provider
Edison Investment Research
Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

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Analysts
Sean Conroy

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