SIGA Technologies - Solid results marked by revenue diversification
SIGA’s FY22 results highlighted underlying revenue diversification and clinical progression during the year. Results were broadly in line with our expectations. Growth was driven by the material uptick in international orders due to the mpox (monkeypox) outbreak ($71m of $77m orders delivered in FY22), supported by orders from the US Department of Defense (DoD) and BARDA for IV TPOXX. Consistent with prior periods, variability in replenishment of government stockpiles is a key consideration in reported revenues and margins. For FY23 and FY24 we estimate replenishment of government stockpiles will continue to remain a pillar, driven by BARDA deliveries for oral ($225m in total over FY23 and FY24 for expiry replenishment) and IV TPOXX. SIGA remains well-capitalized, with net cash of $98.8m at FY22. We adjust our estimates for the Q422 results and near-term operational visibility (introducing a slower international sales ramp-up) resulting in our valuation adjusting to $17.70/share (from $19.64).SIGA Technologies is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company focused on the health security market. Health security comprises countermeasures for biological, chemical, radiological and nuclear attacks, vaccines and therapies for emerging infectious diseases, and health preparedness. The company's primary product is an oral formulation of TPOXX?, an antiviral drug for the treatment of human smallpox disease caused by variola virus. The United States Food and Drug Administration has approved oral TPOXX? for the treatment of smallpox.
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