FREE

Ultimovacs - All steady as Phase II trial readouts approach

Ultimovacs’ Q123 report is largely focused on the upcoming readouts from two of its five ongoing randomised Phase II studies. Results from the NIPU and INITIUM trials in second-line malignant pleural mesothelioma and first-line unresectable metastatic melanoma are expected in Q223 and H223, respectively. In our view, positive results from NIPU and INITIUM would represent the most compelling evidence to date of UV1’s clinical utility for treating solid tumours and the most significant potential catalysts for investor attention in FY23. We also see the slight delay in trial readouts from the INITIUM trial due to lack of disease progression as a potentially encouraging sign for the outcome of the trial; however, we caveat that as the study is blinded, we cannot conclude whether the effect is due to UV1. For more details on the upcoming readouts, see our previous note. We have made minor adjustments to our forecasts, but our valuation of Ultimovacs remains unchanged at NOK8.0bn or NOK234/share; however, it is likely to be materially affected by the NIPU and INITIUM results.