Edison Investment Research - Vernalis PLC (VER) Outlook: Cough cold portfolio gathers momentum

Report

Edison Investment Research

Outlook: Cough cold portfolio gathers momentum

The Tuzistra XR FDA filing is an important step towards Vernalisâ€™s goal of profitable sustainability. Potential approval (assuming NDA acceptance in mid-September) and launch within the next 12 months, into the 2015/16 winter cough cold season, suggest first US cough cold revenues are possible in H215. The four other US cough cold prescription-only extended release products should also achieve development and regulatory milestones in the intervening period. These milestones will be the focus of investors given they will confirm the de-risking of this portfolio, triggering potential upgrades to our current Â£240m (54p/share) rNPV-based valuation.

08/09/2014 12 EN

Underlying

Vernalis PLC

Vernalis is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is a commercial stage pharmaceutical company focused on drug development. Co. has three marketed products: Tuzistra® XR, in the U.S. prescription cough cold market; Moxatag®, the only once-daily amoxicillin approved in the U.S. for tonsillitis and pharyngitis; and frovatriptan, an acute treatment for migraine. In addition, Co.'s nine programs in its new chemical entity development pipeline are: V158866 for central nervous system indications; CP1-444 and V2006 for immuno-oncology indications; AUY922, Tosedostat, Bcl-2, Mcl-1, and V158411 for cancer indications; and RPL554 for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease indications.

See profile

GB00B3Y5L754 United Kingdom

Provider

Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

See profile

Other Reports on these Companies

Equity Development

CMD showcases expertise and strategy

Benchmark (BMK) helps deliver improved healthcare products and services to the Animal Health and Aquaculture industry. Rising demand from clients for its products and services to manage sustainability practice in worldwide production and supply chains underlines BMKâ€™s opportunity for significant organic and external growth. The company held a well-attended Capital Markets Day (CMD) on 27 March, which highlighted its strategic targets for fulfilling its growth potential spanning Advanced Nutrition, Genetics and Animal Health. Strong underlying dynamics include the ongoing recovery of suppl...

April 3, 2018 April 3, 2018 1

Edison Investment Research

Vernalis - Operational initiatives in place, execution is key

Tuzistra XR prescriptions (Rx) grew threefold to ~35k in FY16/17 (2nd year on the market) vs ~12k in FY15/16. Investment into addressing the barriers to higher Tuzistra XR prescribing is translating into higher Rx rates, although this has not been matched by revenue growth due to higher inventory stocking in the same period last year. In H217 FDA issued partner Tris with two complete response letters to Vernalisâ€™s CCP-07 and CCP-08 NDAs and we now model launch during the 2018/19 cough cold season. Our updated forecasts reflect this and lower Tuzistra XR revenues due to a slower than anticipa...

November 22, 2017 November 22, 2017 13 EN

Edison Investment Research

Tuzistra XR steady growth in Rx run rate

Vernalis has provided a year-end trading and operational update ahead of its FY17 results due to be announced on 12 September. Total revenues are expected to be ahead of current market expectations, largely due to higher than anticipated R&D-related milestones. This and tighter cost control means that operating loss for the full year is expected to be lower than consensus estimates. In terms of prescription (Rx) growth, Tuzistra XR continued its steady growth in volumes y-o-y; reported net revenue will depend on the impact of rebates and vouchers on gross revenues for the year. Our valuation r...

July 19, 2017 July 19, 2017 3 EN

AGBA - A transformational deal

On 18 April, AGBA announced a surprise deal to acquire 100% of Triller Corp, a global AI-driven social video platform, in an all-stock transaction. Triller is privately-owned but has been independently valued at US$3.2bn. AGBA’s management is using a US$4bn valuation for the combined entity, in which AGBA shareholders will own 20% and Triller shareholders 80%. Triller recorded FY23 revenues of US$45m on 450m user accounts and 2.2m creators but is loss-making. In FY23, AGBA reported revenues of US$54m and 400,000+ clients. The combined group expects synergies from expanding and marketing to Tri...

3h / 49m 3h / 49m 1 EN

Sean Conroy

Sean Conroy

Biodexa Pharmaceuticals - In a period of transition

FY23 was a transitional year for Biodexa, following the restructuring announced in March 2023 into a therapeutic company from a drug delivery specialist, and the implementation of cost-saving initiatives in light of the macroeconomic environment. The pipeline expansion primarily de-risks the business, partially fulfilled with the acquisition of lyn kinase activator tolimidone, for type 1 diabetes (T1D), in late 2023. Management estimates gross cash of £5.97m at end-FY23 to provide a runway into Q424, past the planned Phase IIa trial initiation for tolimidone. The next catalyst will likely be t...

7h / 59m 7h / 59m 1 EN

Toby Thorrington

Toby Thorrington

Norcros - Sale of Johnson Tiles UK agreed

Norcros’s disposal of Johnson Tiles is the latest strategic activity taken by management to better allocate capital to fit with priorities. Last year it closed its UK adhesives operation. Norcros has a compelling investment case, where its new product development initiatives, market positioning and self-help initiatives allow it to take market share in both the UK and South Africa. Its rating is low at 6.0x FY24e P/E, which is attractive, especially when compared to its yield of 5.4% on its well-covered dividend. We retain our estimates and value the shares at 246p, implying c 30% upside.

April 25, 2024 April 25, 2024 1 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

Outlook: Cough cold portfolio gathers momentum

CMD showcases expertise and strategy

Vernalis - Operational initiatives in place, execution is key

Tuzistra XR steady growth in Rx run rate

AGBA - A transformational deal

Biodexa Pharmaceuticals - In a period of transition

Norcros - Sale of Johnson Tiles UK agreed

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe