The trade war between USA & China had led to a global fear around the stock market and causing a mid-term “bear market” in China which lost 30% since the start of 2018. The latest plan is that the two leaders US President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping would meet for dinner on December 1 immediately after the G20 meeting in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires.
Trump says US is ‘doing extremely well’ with China but deal not done yet. Therefore the next meeting could be critical for this ongoing war trade talk and its result will have important effect around the market.
At ElliottWave Forecast, we believe the market is ruled by technical aspect and the news is an after-fact event to drive the market into the pre-determined direction. Therefore, understanding the Nature of the Market is key for traders to stay in the right side and follow a clear path which have nothing to do with Fundamentals or events.
For our technical explanation, we’ll be using the largest China ETF “iShares China Large-Cap ETF FXI” which tracks an index of the 50 largest and most liquid Chinese stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
China Large-Cap ETF FXI Monthly Chart
From January 2018 peak, FXI declined in a and reached the extreme blue box area $38.8 – $35.76 which is a High-frequency area where the markets are likely to end cycles and make a turn. Up from there, the ETF is looking to resume the rally higher in an impulsive 5 waves structure or at least it will bounce in 3 waves to correct 2018 decline.
