​MTEF: the numbers
Neither the new administration nor its early policy pronouncements have impressed the markets. The 2016-18 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) offers the potential to make amends, and we draw on South Africa to make our point. In our view the largest contribution to the transformation of the sovereign credit under majority rule and the attainment of investment-grade ratings has been the fiscal discipline under three finance ministers (Trevor Manuel, Pravin Gordan and Nhlanhla Nene). The latter’s replacement last week by an untested party loyalist (since replaced himself by Gordhan) led to an aggressive sell-off.
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