Report
Christian Orquera

Coverage Initiation

First Berlin Equity Research on 25/04/2016 initiated coverage on German Startups Group Berlin GmbH & Co. KGaA (ISIN: DE000A1MMEV4/ Bloomberg: GSJ GR). Analyst Christian Orquera placed a BUY rating on the stock, with a EUR 4.20 price target.

Abstract:
The primary focus of German Startups is the acquisition of minority holdings in high growth potential start-ups within the IT and Internet sectors in the German-speaking market. Despite GSG's brief 3.5 year history, the company has rapidly built up a high quality portfolio and become the second most active venture capital provider in Germany. The company currently has 23 minority holdings of particular significance including some of the most successful German start-ups such as Delivery Hero, Mister Spex and SoundCloud. The highly diversified portfolio has delivered an impressive return on investment close to 30% p.a. since 2012. Additionally, GSG has been profitable since its first year of operations due to consistent portfolio appreciation, based on third party valuations of its holdings (IFRS). We expect GSG to significantly increase portfolio value and profitability over the next few years, as its holdings gain in critical mass and traction. We initiate coverage of GSG with a Buy recommendation and a price target of €4.20.

This is an abbreviated summary. For the full text of this story contact Gaurav Tiwari directly.

First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Mr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: [email protected]

Authored by: Christian Orquera, Analyst

Company responsible for preparation:

First Berlin Equity Research GmbH

Mohrenstraße 34

10117 Berlin


Tel. +49 (0)30 - 80 93 96 93 Fax +49 (0)30 - 80 93 96 87


[email protected]

www.firstberlin.com

Person responsible for forwarding or distributing this financial analysis: Martin Bailey

Copyright© 2016 First Berlin Equity Research GmbH No part of this financial analysis may be copied, photocopied, duplicated or distributed in any form or media whatsoever without prior written permission from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH. First Berlin Equity Research GmbH shall be identified as the source in the case of quotations. Further information is available on request.

Information pursuant to Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act [WpHG] and the German Ordinance on the Analysis of Financial Instruments [FinAnV]

First Berlin Equity Research GmbH (hereinafter referred to as: “First Berlin”) prepares financial analyses while taking the relevant regulatory provisions, in particular the German Securities Trading Act [WpHG] and the German Ordinance on the Analysis of Financial Instruments [FinAnV], into consideration. In the following First Berlin provides investors with information about the statutory provisions that are to be observed in the preparation of financial analyses.

ConflictS of Interest

In accordance with Section 34b Paragraph 1 p. 2 No. 2 of the German Securities Trading Act [WpHG] financial analyses may only be passed on or publicly distributed if circumstances or relations which may cause conflicts of interest among the authors, the legal entities responsible for such preparation or companies associated with them are disclosed along with the financial analysis.

First Berlin offers a range of services that go beyond the preparation of financial analyses. Although First Berlin strives to avoid conflicts of interest wherever possible, First Berlin may maintain the following relations with the analysed company, which in particular may constitute a potential conflict of interest (further information and data may be provided on request):

§The author, First Berlin, or a company associated with First Berlin holds an interest of more than five percent in the share capital of the analysed company;

§The author, First Berlin, or a company associated with First Berlin provided investment banking or consulting services for the analysed company within the past twelve months for which remuneration was or was to be paid;

§The author, First Berlin, or a company associated with First Berlin reached an agreement with the analysed company for preparation of a financial analysis for which remuneration is owed;

§The author, First Berlin, or a company associated with First Berlin has other significant financial interests in the analysed company;

In order to avoid and, if necessary, manage possible conflicts of interest both the author of the financial analysis and First Berlin shall be obliged to neither hold nor in any way trade the securities of the company analyzed. The remuneration of the author of the financial analysis stands in no direct or indirect connection with the recommendations or opinions represented in the financial analysis. Furthermore, the remuneration of the author of the financial analysis is neither coupled directly to financial transactions nor to stock exchange trading volume or asset management fees.

If despite these measures one or more of the aforementioned conflicts of interest cannot be avoided on the part of the author or First Berlin, then reference shall be made to such conflict of interest.

Price Target Dates

Unless otherwise indicated, current prices refer to the closing prices of the previous trading day.

Agreement with the Analysed Company and Maintenance of Objectivity

The present financial analysis is based on the author’s own knowledge and research. The author prepared this study without any direct or indirect influence exerted on the part of the analysed company. Parts of the financial analysis were possibly provided to the analysed company prior to publication in order to avoid inaccuracies in the representation of facts. However, no substantial changes were made at the request of the analysed company following any such provision.

Asset Valuation System

First Berlin’s system for asset valuation is divided into an asset recommendation and a risk assessment.

Asset Recommendation

The recommendations determined in accordance with the share price trend anticipated by First Berlin in the respectively indicated investment period are as follows:

STRONG BUY: An expected favourable price trend of more than 50% combined with sizeable confidence in the quality and forecast security of management.

BUY: An expected favourable price trend of more than 25% percent.

ADD: An expected favourable price trend of between 0% and 25%.

REDUCE: An expected negative price trend of between 0% and -15%.

SELL: An expected negative price trend of more than -15%.

Risk Assessment

The First Berlin categories for risk assessment are low, average, high and speculative. They are determined by ten factors: Corporate governance, quality of earnings, management strength, balance sheet and financial risk, competitive position, standard of financial disclosure, regulatory and political uncertainty, strength of brandname, market capitalisation and free float. These risk factors are incorporated into the First Berlin valuation models and are thus included in the target prices. First Berlin customers may request the models.

Investment Horizon

Unless otherwise stated in the financial analysis, the ratings refer to an investment period of twelve months.

Updates

At the time of publication of this financial analysis it is not certain whether, when and on what occasion an update will be provided. In general First Berlin strives to review the financial analysis for its topicality and, if required, to update it in a very timely manner in connection with the reporting obligations of the analysed company or on the occasion of ad hoc notifications.

Subject to Change

The opinions contained in the financial analysis reflect the assessment of the author on the day of publication of the financial analysis. The author of the financial analysis reserves the right to change such opinion without prior notification.

Legally required information regarding

§key sources of information in the preparation of this research report

§valuation methods and principles

§sensitivity of valuation parameters

can be accessed through the following internet link: http://firstberlin.com/disclaimer-english-link/

SUPERVISORY AUTHORITY: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority) [BaFin], Graurheindorferstraße 108, 53117 Bonn and Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt

Exclusion of Liability (Disclaimer)

Reliability of Information and Sources of Information

The information contained in this study is based on sources considered by the author to be reliable. Comprehensive verification of the accuracy and completeness of information and the reliability of sources of information has neither been carried out by the author nor by First Berlin. As a result no warranty of any kind whatsoever shall be assumed for the accuracy and completeness of information and the reliability of sources of information, and neither the author nor First Berlin, nor the person responsible for passing on or distributing the financial analysis shall be liable for any direct or indirect damage incurred through reliance on the accuracy and completeness of information and the reliability of sources of information.

Reliability of Estimates and Forecasts

The author of the financial analysis made estimates and forecasts to the best of the author’s knowledge. These estimates and forecasts reflect the author’s personal opinion and judgement. The premises for estimates and forecasts as well as the author’s perspective on such premises are subject to constant change. Expectations with regard to the future performance of a financial instrument are the result of a measurement at a single point in time and may change at any time. The result of a financial analysis always describes only one possible future development – the one that is most probable from the perspective of the author – of a number of possible future developments.

Any and all market values or target prices indicated for the company analysed in this financial analysis may not be achieved due to various risk factors, including but not limited to market volatility, sector volatility, the actions of the analysed company, economic climate, failure to achieve earnings and/or sales forecasts, unavailability of complete and precise information and/or a subsequently occurring event which affects the underlying assumptions of the author and/or other sources on which the author relies in this document. Past performance is not an indicator of future results; past values cannot be carried over into the future.

Consequently, no warranty of any kind whatsoever shall be assumed for the accuracy of estimates and forecasts, and neither the author nor First Berlin, nor the person responsible for passing on or distributing the financial analysis shall be liable for any direct or indirect damage incurred through reliance on the correctness of estimates and forecasts.

Information Purposes, No Recommendation, Solicitation, No Offer for the Purchase of Securities

The present financial analysis serves information purposes. It is intended to support institutional investors in making their own investment decisions; however in no way provide the investor with investment advice. Neither the author, nor First Berlin, nor the person responsible for passing on or distributing the financial analysis shall be considered to be acting as an investment advisor or portfolio manager vis-à-vis an investor. Each investor must form his own independent opinion with regard to the suitability of an investment in view of his own investment objectives, experience, tax situation, financial position and other circumstances.

The financial analysis does not represent a recommendation or solicitation and is not an offer for the purchase of the security specified in this financial analysis. Consequently, neither the author nor First Berlin, nor the person responsible for passing on or distributing the financial analysis shall as a result be liable for losses incurred through direct or indirect employment or use of any kind whatsoever of information or statements arising out of this financial analysis.

A decision concerning an investment in securities should take place on the basis of independent investment analyses and procedures as well as other studies including, but not limited to, information memoranda, sales or issuing prospectuses and not on the basis of this document.

No Establishment of Contractual Obligations

By taking note of this financial analysis the recipient neither becomes a customer of First Berlin, nor does First Berlin incur any contractual, quasi-contractual or pre-contractual obligations and/or responsibilities toward the recipient. In particular no information contract shall be established between First Berlin and the recipient of this information.

No Obligation to Update

First Berlin, the author and/or the person responsible for passing on or distributing the financial analysis shall not be obliged to update the financial analysis. Investors must keep themselves informed about the current course of business and any changes in the current course of business of the analysed company.

Duplication

Dispatch or duplication of this document is not permitted without the prior written consent of First Berlin.

Severability

Should any provision of this disclaimer prove to be illegal, invalid or unenforceable under the respectively applicable law, then such provision shall be treated as if it were not an integral component of this disclaimer; in no way shall it affect the legality, validity or enforceability of the remaining provisions.

Applicable Law, Place of Jurisdiction

The preparation of this financial analysis shall be subject to the law obtaining in the Federal Republic of Germany. The place of jurisdiction for any disputes shall be Berlin (Germany).

Notice of Disclaimer

By taking note of this financial analysis the recipient confirms the binding nature of the above explanations.

By using this document or relying on it in any manner whatsoever the recipient accepts the above restrictions as binding for the recipient.

Qualified Institutional Investors

First Berlin financial analyses are intended exclusively for qualified institutional investors.

This report is not intended for distribution in the USA, Canada and/or the United Kingdom (Great Britain).

Underlying
German Startups Group Berlin GmbH & Co KGaA

German Startups Group GmbH & Co KgaA. German Startups Group GmbH & Co KgaA is a Germany-based venture capital company. The Company invests in startup companies in the seed, early, mid and growth stages. In addition, the Company acquires secondary shares of startups from founders, business angels and early stage investors. Its portfolio includes Ayondo, Customer Alliance, Cybits, DaliaResearch, Delivery Hero, eWings.com, ePetWorld GmbH, Fanmiles, Fanmiles, Itembase, Juniqe, Lingoda, Medlanes, meinKauf, Mister Spex, Returbo, Shutzklick, Soundcloud, and Wummel Kiste, among others. In addition, the Company operates a majority stake in Exozet Berlin GmbH, through which, it offers its portfolio companies access to a range of services: realization of Web and applications, development of online marketing campaigns, consulting of brand development, modifying business models and selecting technology.

Provider
First Berlin
First Berlin

​We provide independent equity research and market intelligence to banks, asset managers and other institutional investors on small and micro cap companies in a variety of sectors. The principles of integrity, transparency and competence drive our research and provide the basis for a fair analysis and valuation of companies. Our equity research team analyses economic, market, industry and company data to optimise the performance of our clients’ investment portfolios and to help companies set their strategic direction. Purely focused on micro and small cap companies, our analysts offer stock recommendations and insights into industry trends and precise valuation perspectives through in-depth reports.

Analysts
Christian Orquera

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from First Berlin

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch