FFBH - Bulgarian_Economy Q2 2017
Key Economic Developments in Q2 2017
- Another strong quarter for domestic consumption boosted the seasonally adjusted GDP up by 3.6% YoY. Household demand jumped 5.7% YoY, but we are also inspired by the recovery in GCF, +4% YoY.
- Construction was the top performing sector in Q2 – it soared 10.8% YoY, followed by Real Estate Activities, +8.4%.
- H1 2017 budget balance was positive at BGN 1.7bn, 8% of 2017E GDP and we expect it would stay in the green also towards the end of the year despite the budgeted deficit of 1.3% of GDP. We note that the weaker revenue side was entirely due to lower EU grants, however we are slightly concerned about the increasing share of social spending in government expenditure.
- June 2017 marked an important turnaround for price levels in Bulgaria after the annual average inflation emerged above the ground (+0.1%) after 41 months of deflation.
- The expanding Trade Deficit has gradually eroded the Current Account balance, which shrunk 37% YoY in Q2, however remained BGN 836k positive thanks to the 19% higher YoY surplus on the Services
- The intensification of the foreign trade activity since the beginning of 2017 continued throughout Q2 as exports advanced 13.6% YoY, while imports were up 18.5% YoY, netting a deficit for the quarter of BGN 438m, +28.1% YoY.
First Financial Brokerage House (FFBH) is a leading non-banking financial institution on the Bulgarian capital market. Founded in 1991, FFBH offers the complete spectrum of investment banking services spanning corporate finance, privatisation advisory, mergers and acquisitions, financial consulting, brokerage services, research & analysis and asset management.
FFBH provides its services mainly to major international banks and corporations seeking investment in Bulgaria. FFBH is not only local contractor and partner to its clients but also an information source and provider for all major news and events in the economic and political life of the country.
We are the main contact point for the large majority of foreign and local institutional investors in the Bulgarian equity market. FFBH is providing access to the Bulgarian Stock Exchange by either its highly experienced sales trading desk or by order routing across the Bloomberg network.
Additionally, FFBH is offering a range of tools, specifically tailored for the retail investor. Both domestic and international markets are only a click away, via electronic trading solutions. As a major advantage, our customers are able to benefit from the broad range of Analysis & Research products with premium quality, provided by our team of dedicated analysts.
Clients of our research products are most of the largest foreign and local institutional investors looking for opportunities in Bulgaria. More than 100 investment banks, investment funds and other institutional investors use our Equity research and Economic review on a regular basis. FFBH’s Morning Bulletin and Weekly Bulletin reach more than 300 clients over different countries and continents.
Our major Research and Analysis Services include:
- Semi-Annual Outlook of the Bulgarian economy and the domestic capital markets;
- Equity analyses of the biggest and/or most liquid companies listed on Bulgarian Stock Exchange - Sofia;
- Quarterly Bulgarian Real Estate sector and REITs overview;
- Quarterly Bulgarian Banking System overview;
- Quarterly macroeconomic overeview, with details on the major economic sectors, commentaries, and statistical indicators;
- Daily and Weekly bulletins, including an overview of the capital markets and the most important macroeconomic & corporate events.
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