FFBH - Bulgarian Economy Q1 2018
Surge in Gross Capital Formation and Cyclical Upswing in Construction Help GDP Growth Rebound; Record High Employment Feed Individual Consumption.
- Bulgaria’s Q1’18 real GDP growth rebounded from Q4’17 slowdown coming to 3.5% - coinciding with record GCF (+10% YoY), but relatively slow final consumption (+3.2%).
- Construction output led the sector growth, rising by 9.3% YoY, followed by Real estate (+5.4% YoY).
- March’18 HICP fell 0.1 p.p. short of 2% on rebounding oil prices resulting in 23.1% and 11.8% growth of Heating and Gas prices respectively.
- The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate neared its 2008 bottom, declining by 1.2 p.p. YoY to 5.7% in March’2018.
- Q1’18 current account deficit came to BGN 270m or 0.3% of 2018e GDP, up by 41.8% YoY due to persistent trade deficit.
- Q1’18 FDI were at their lowest point since Q4 2016 after major outflow from the Reinvested earnings account left the balance at BGN 350m (1.6% of Q1’18 GDP).
- End Q1’18 government debt was BGN 2.6bn lower on annum (-9.9%) and fell to a level of 22.7% of the 2018e GDP.
- Q1 budget closed at a BGN 592.7m surplus, although government expenditure rose 9.9% YoY due to higher social and staff costs.
- The trade deficit (FOB-FOB) grew 51.3% YoY, mostly on lower non-EU exports (-18.3% YoY).
First Financial Brokerage House (FFBH) is a leading non-banking financial institution on the Bulgarian capital market. Founded in 1991, FFBH offers the complete spectrum of investment banking services spanning corporate finance, privatisation advisory, mergers and acquisitions, financial consulting, brokerage services, research & analysis and asset management.
FFBH provides its services mainly to major international banks and corporations seeking investment in Bulgaria. FFBH is not only local contractor and partner to its clients but also an information source and provider for all major news and events in the economic and political life of the country.
We are the main contact point for the large majority of foreign and local institutional investors in the Bulgarian equity market. FFBH is providing access to the Bulgarian Stock Exchange by either its highly experienced sales trading desk or by order routing across the Bloomberg network.
Additionally, FFBH is offering a range of tools, specifically tailored for the retail investor. Both domestic and international markets are only a click away, via electronic trading solutions. As a major advantage, our customers are able to benefit from the broad range of Analysis & Research products with premium quality, provided by our team of dedicated analysts.
Clients of our research products are most of the largest foreign and local institutional investors looking for opportunities in Bulgaria. More than 100 investment banks, investment funds and other institutional investors use our Equity research and Economic review on a regular basis. FFBH’s Morning Bulletin and Weekly Bulletin reach more than 300 clients over different countries and continents.
Our major Research and Analysis Services include:
- Semi-Annual Outlook of the Bulgarian economy and the domestic capital markets;
- Equity analyses of the biggest and/or most liquid companies listed on Bulgarian Stock Exchange - Sofia;
- Quarterly Bulgarian Real Estate sector and REITs overview;
- Quarterly Bulgarian Banking System overview;
- Quarterly macroeconomic overeview, with details on the major economic sectors, commentaries, and statistical indicators;
- Daily and Weekly bulletins, including an overview of the capital markets and the most important macroeconomic & corporate events.
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