FFBH - Bulgarian Economy Q2 2018
Strong individual consumption supports GDP growth hindered by the trade deficit; Inflation reaches cyclical highs together with employment
- Bulgaria’s Q2’18 real GDP growth advanced 3.2% YoY with higher final consumption (+6.3%) and GCF (+6.3%), partly offset by surge in the trade deficit.
- Real estate output led the sector growth, rising by 8.3% YoY, followed by financial services (+7.6% YoY), while construction registered a small decline.
- June’18 HICP reached the 3.0% mark with transportation costs contributing a third of the total change due to higher oil prices.
- The unemployment rate by the end of the quarter was 5.5%, 0.5 p.p. away from its all-time low.
- Exports outside the EU declined by 20%, the EU market for Bulgarian goods expanded 8%.
- Q2’18 current account reported first surplus for the year – marginal EUR 36m.
- The budget surplus since the start of the year reached BGN 1.7bn, even though expenses grew 11.0% YoY in H1 2018.
- End Q2’18 government debt was EUR 0.5bn lower YTD (-15.2%) or 22.6% of the 2018e GDP.
- FDI rose 26.8% QoQ in Q2’18 reaching EUR 269.3m, 35.7% less than in the year-ago period.
First Financial Brokerage House (FFBH) is a leading non-banking financial institution on the Bulgarian capital market. Founded in 1991, FFBH offers the complete spectrum of investment banking services spanning corporate finance, privatisation advisory, mergers and acquisitions, financial consulting, brokerage services, research & analysis and asset management.
FFBH provides its services mainly to major international banks and corporations seeking investment in Bulgaria. FFBH is not only local contractor and partner to its clients but also an information source and provider for all major news and events in the economic and political life of the country.
We are the main contact point for the large majority of foreign and local institutional investors in the Bulgarian equity market. FFBH is providing access to the Bulgarian Stock Exchange by either its highly experienced sales trading desk or by order routing across the Bloomberg network.
Additionally, FFBH is offering a range of tools, specifically tailored for the retail investor. Both domestic and international markets are only a click away, via electronic trading solutions. As a major advantage, our customers are able to benefit from the broad range of Analysis & Research products with premium quality, provided by our team of dedicated analysts.
Clients of our research products are most of the largest foreign and local institutional investors looking for opportunities in Bulgaria. More than 100 investment banks, investment funds and other institutional investors use our Equity research and Economic review on a regular basis. FFBH’s Morning Bulletin and Weekly Bulletin reach more than 300 clients over different countries and continents.
Our major Research and Analysis Services include:
- Semi-Annual Outlook of the Bulgarian economy and the domestic capital markets;
- Equity analyses of the biggest and/or most liquid companies listed on Bulgarian Stock Exchange - Sofia;
- Quarterly Bulgarian Real Estate sector and REITs overview;
- Quarterly Bulgarian Banking System overview;
- Quarterly macroeconomic overeview, with details on the major economic sectors, commentaries, and statistical indicators;
- Daily and Weekly bulletins, including an overview of the capital markets and the most important macroeconomic & corporate events.
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