FFBH - Bulgarian Economy Q3 2018
Consumption propelled Q3 GDP growth despite investment slowdown and worsening net exports; Inflation peaked; Unemployment reached a through
- Bulgaria’s Q3’18 real GDP growth amounted to 2.7% YoY with higher final consumption (+7.5%) offset by lower GCF and tightening net export position in an EU-wide slowdown.
- Real estate’s GVA surged 14.9% YoY – highest amongst all sectors.
- HICP change stabilized at 3.6% in September as oil prices retracted from a 4-year peak.
- The unemployment rate reached the 2008-low of 5.0% despite lower participation.
- Q3’18 exports grew by 2.0% to BGN 14.5bn on growing trade with EU, while the flow of goods to the rest of the world stagnated.
- YTD current account reported EUR 2.1bn surplus (-41.2% YoY) thanks to the positive balance in services.
- Budget revenues rose 11.4% in Q3’18, leading to a surplus of 2.5% of 2018 GDPe.
- Government debt to 2018e GDP fell by 1.0 p.p. YTD to 22.3%.
- Quarterly FDI doubled, rising 101.3% to BGN 1.1bn.
First Financial Brokerage House (FFBH) is a leading non-banking financial institution on the Bulgarian capital market. Founded in 1991, FFBH offers the complete spectrum of investment banking services spanning corporate finance, privatisation advisory, mergers and acquisitions, financial consulting, brokerage services, research & analysis and asset management.
FFBH provides its services mainly to major international banks and corporations seeking investment in Bulgaria. FFBH is not only local contractor and partner to its clients but also an information source and provider for all major news and events in the economic and political life of the country.
We are the main contact point for the large majority of foreign and local institutional investors in the Bulgarian equity market. FFBH is providing access to the Bulgarian Stock Exchange by either its highly experienced sales trading desk or by order routing across the Bloomberg network.
Additionally, FFBH is offering a range of tools, specifically tailored for the retail investor. Both domestic and international markets are only a click away, via electronic trading solutions. As a major advantage, our customers are able to benefit from the broad range of Analysis & Research products with premium quality, provided by our team of dedicated analysts.
Clients of our research products are most of the largest foreign and local institutional investors looking for opportunities in Bulgaria. More than 100 investment banks, investment funds and other institutional investors use our Equity research and Economic review on a regular basis. FFBH’s Morning Bulletin and Weekly Bulletin reach more than 300 clients over different countries and continents.
Our major Research and Analysis Services include:
- Semi-Annual Outlook of the Bulgarian economy and the domestic capital markets;
- Equity analyses of the biggest and/or most liquid companies listed on Bulgarian Stock Exchange - Sofia;
- Quarterly Bulgarian Real Estate sector and REITs overview;
- Quarterly Bulgarian Banking System overview;
- Quarterly macroeconomic overeview, with details on the major economic sectors, commentaries, and statistical indicators;
- Daily and Weekly bulletins, including an overview of the capital markets and the most important macroeconomic & corporate events.
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