Report

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation (TSX: AI) - Stable Q3 Results; MIC Stocks Poised for Upswing

Q3 results were broadly in line, with revenue meeting expectations and EPS slightly ahead. Mortgage receivables dipped 0.42% QoQ due to higher repayments, while lower lending rates—following multiple BoC cuts—drove a 14% YoY revenue decline. EPS fell only 4% YoY, supported by reduced loan loss provisions. Portfolio risk remained stable, backed by 96% first mortgages and a 61% LTV. Management is shifting toward lower-risk property types amid weak development activity.
Impaired mortgages rose to $56M (6% of the book), though most are expected to be repaid in upcoming quarters. With BoC rate cuts totaling 275 bps since mid-2024 and more easing possible, the outlook is improving for real estate lenders as lower rates should support pre-sales and developer financing. MICs have lagged broader financials but may rebound in 2026 alongside a real estate recovery. With Q3 in line, forecasts remain unchanged, and the dividend is projected at $0.99/share (8.8% yield).
Underlying
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation

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Fundamental Research
Fundamental Research

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Analysts
Sid Rajeev

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